"Politics, bloody hell"

Following Manchester United’s dramatic Champions League final victory over Bayern Munich in 1999, Alex Ferguson’s surprise and delight was expressed in his post-match comment “football, bloody hell.” Substitute politics for football and that encapsulates events of the past 24 hours in British politics. The most dramatic event was the decision by the Supreme Court which found Boris Johnson guilty of unlawfully preventing parliament from fulfilling its constitutional function of holding the government to account. Under normal circumstances, that would be sufficient to render a PM unfit for office – indeed, most employees losing a court case in such circumstances would expect to be fired – but these are not normal times.

In 62 days as Prime Minister, Boris Johnson has lost six parliamentary votes; a by-election; his parliamentary majority; 23 MPs and a major court case in which he was found guilty of flouting the UK’s democratic conventions. These are the actions of a serial loser and were he a football manager Johnson would surely have been fired by now. But for all that, when Johnson finally does get the election he has long wanted – probably before year end – I fully expect him to win (or at least lead the largest party in parliament). And that is because he faces the least competent leader of an opposition party in the history of modern British politics.

Not what you are for but who you are against

For those of you not following the details, the Labour Party conference which is taking place this week shows a party which is in disarray and is remote from the concerns of the electorate. Jeremy Corbyn rejected efforts by party members to adopt a clear stance on Brexit before any general election by gerrymandering the process (par for the course in modern British politics). By packing the conference hall with supporters and calling for a show of hands, rather than allowing the trade unions to put their support behind moves for a second referendum, Corbyn has adopted a position which effectively amounts to “vote for us and we will tell you what our position is after the election.”

Those younger voters who flocked to Labour in 2017 in the belief that the party opposed Brexit will not vote for Corbyn again. The wider electorate is suspicious of a party which has what can only be described as a socialist agenda, and if it will not address the concerns of voters on Brexit, the moderates will desert in droves. I wrote in September 2015, soon after Corbyn was elected leader, that he would never be elected prime minister (“the general consensus at this stage is that Mr Corbyn is unelectable”). I believe this to be even more true today and this week’s conference decisions will go down as the moment Labour lost its chance to win an election.

Keep calm and carry on

Therefore, as bad a PM as Johnson is, all he has to do is hang in there and he will be returned to Downing Street at the next election. Indeed, although Johnson has been thwarted at every turn in his efforts to deliver Brexit, he is pulling out the stops to make it appear that he is prepared to do whatever it takes. This sort of stuff plays well with the half of the electorate that voted for Brexit and just wants to get on with it. It almost does not matter whether Johnson is successful in his efforts to prorogue parliament: By promising to deliver “do or die”, he has made himself into a martyr for the Brexit cause which will suit him as he tries to win back those Conservatives who have defected to the Brexit Party.

In my view, the government now does not have to take the risk of pushing ahead with a no-deal Brexit on 31 October as it can point to the various efforts by other parties (parliament and the courts) to prevent such an outcome. Johnson has already established his Brexit credentials. Indeed, the government would be breaking the law if it decided to push ahead with a no-deal Brexit.  Much of the excitable commentary suggesting that the government might ignore the court and try to prorogue parliament for a second time is probably wide of the mark (or at least it should be. The PM would be well advised not to listen to his advisers).

It is also not inconceivable that a deal can be struck that ensures the UK can enter into the transitional arrangement with the EU on 31 October, as Johnson undoubtedly desires. After all, there have recently been signs that the DUP are apparently softening their opposition to the prospect of an all-Ireland solution to the Irish backstop problem. In short, Northern Ireland would be much more closely aligned to the EU’s customs rules and would mean rather different treatment to the rest of the UK. If this hurdle can be overcome, then the problem of imposing a hard border between the Republic and Northern Ireland falls away. The EU would certainly be open to this option. After all, they originally suggested it in 2018 only for it to be rejected by the UK government which did not want to see different rules being applied in different parts of the UK.

Far from the finish line

If, however, this cannot be achieved then an extension to Article 50 seems inevitable. But this will open up a whole new can of worms. There is already a huge backlash underway against “unelected judges,” which totally ignores the fact that the courts actually opened the way for parliament – the representative body of the people – to take control of the issue. Whilst it is unsatisfactory that the judiciary has become involved in politics in the way that it has over the past three years, it is even more unsatisfactory that the executive has shown such contempt for the democratic process. We are sailing ever deeper into uncharted waters as the government tries to square the unresolvable circle of Brexit. As Brexiteers continue to look for the knockout blow that will resolve the problem “once and for all” they simply create more collateral damage and heighten the risk of an even bigger backlash.

We do not know where it will end. Nor do we know when it will end, for it is often forgotten that delivering Brexit on 31 October simply means entering into a harder set of negotiations with the EU as the two sides seek to determine the longer term nature of their relationship. There is no pot of gold at the end of this rainbow. And even the rainbow now looks more than a little tarnished.