Despite all of this – or perhaps because of it – I have been of the view that Johnson does not want a no-deal Brexit. Even last week’s execrable decision to prorogue parliament could be justified as an attempt to put pressure on MPs to sign up to the much derided Withdrawal Agreement. As I pointed out in my last post, one interpretation of the strategy was to ensure that it was impossible to reach a deal with the EU so as to put pressure on MPs to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement and dare Labour to block it, knowing that they could be blamed for a no-deal Brexit in any subsequent election. I still think that is a plausible strategy.
But over the weekend, it has become evident that the government is prepared to trample over democratic norms to an extent that was previously unthinkable. We had the unedifying spectacle of Michael Gove refusing to commit the government to complying with any laws passed by parliament. This was followed up by the threat to deselect any Conservative MP who votes against the government in order to block a no-deal Brexit. I do not want to describe what is happening as a coup – a word which has been bandied around a lot recently – but there is a new strain of authoritarianism in British politics, the likes of which we have not seen before (at least in peacetime). This is not the Conservative Party of Margaret Thatcher or Winston Churchill (Johnson’s political hero).
The sheer hypocrisy of the deselection policy beggars belief. As Tory MP Alistair Burt pointed out in response to the government’s call for MPs to support its Brexit policy, “I did. I voted for the conclusions of the negotiations brought to Parliament in the WA [Withdrawal Agreement]. JRM [Jacob Rees-Mogg], his friends and current Cabinet members did not. Why am I, having loyally supported, now being threatened and not them?” It is hard to dispute the logic of this claim. On 15 January, 118 Conservative MPs voted against the government’s stated policy of ratifying the Withdrawal Agreement. On 12 March this number was reduced to 75 and by the time of the final vote on 29 March there were still 34 recidivists. The 196 Tory MPs who voted with the government on three occasions will not be inclined to be threatened by those who have consistently showed a lack of loyalty to the former prime minister. What comes around goes around, and Johnson’s lack of loyalty in the past means he cannot count on the support of those who he has previously let down.
Nor does the deselection tactic make a lot of immediate sense. The government has a majority of one: withdrawing the whip from Conservative MPs means that they are effectively excommunicated from the party, increasing the likelihood that they will vote against the government on a range of other issues. But if the ultimate objective is to hold an election sooner rather than later, there may be some method to the madness – why else would a government want to operate without a working majority? As David Gauke MP said in a radio interview this morning, “I think their strategy, to be honest, is to lose [an attempt to rule out a no-deal Brexit] this week and seek a general election having removed those of us who are not against Brexit or leaving the EU but believe we should do so with a deal.” Indeed, newspapers this afternoon were full of headlines suggesting that Johnson would be prepared to trigger an election if he lost a vote ruling out a no-deal Brexit. However, an election can only occur if the government loses a vote of no confidence in parliament or if two-thirds of MPs vote for it. Either way, it will require the consent of Labour MPs.
Former PM Tony Blair has warned Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn against falling into the “elephant trap” of calling for an election. Blair’s words should be heeded. As much as people are opposed to Brexit and the way in which Johnson has ridden roughshod over the British constitution, there is no guarantee that voters will flock to Corbyn as an alternative. In fact, I am pretty sure they won’t. Obviously Corbyn does not see it that way but I would be prepared to bet that he will not improve on the relative success of the 2017 election result.
If Corbyn really wants to put pressure on Johnson, his strategy should be to get as many Tory rebels as possible to sign up to a motion which commits parliament to ruling out a no-deal Brexit, whilst refusing to rise to the bait of any vote which would trigger a general election. This has the disadvantage that if Brexit can be delivered without collapsing the economy it will hand Johnson an electoral boost. But a more likely outcome is that since the EU will not cave in on the Irish backstop, which the hardliners in the Conservative Party will not be able to accept, a disciplined Labour Party can hold the Tories’ feet to the flames for a much longer period and possibly even force the party to split which would be to Labour’s electoral advantage.
Unfortunately, this would mean a continuation of the political wrangling that has characterised the last twelve months – and that is definitely not in the electorate’s interest. But an election is not in the country’s interest either. The Fixed-term Parliaments Act of 2011 was designed to prevent governments controlling the timing of elections for their own purposes (which it spectacularly failed to do in 2017). If the terms of the Act had been adhered to, we would not have had an election since 2015 and would not have to face the prospect of another one until summer 2020. The 2017 election was a device to suit the government’s convenience – as will any plebiscite in 2019. If there is another election this year, it will further undermine the claim that a second EU referendum would be to disrespect the “will of the people.”
Is there a way out of this political nightmare? It is hard to see one. We are paying the price for a litany of past mistakes – from the decision to hold a referendum at all; to drawing red lines around membership of the single market and customs union, to Johnson’s plan to resolve the issue by 31 October. Whatever happens now, half the electorate will be left disaffected and angry. There are no good options – only bad ones.
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