Monday 26 November 2018

Persuading BOB

Theresa May's open letter to the electorate in support of her Brexit deal has been roundly criticised on social media. I can certainly see why: It was riddled with more than a few distortions and untruths.

But we need to see this appeal for what it really is: An appeal to those members of the public bored of Brexit (or BOBs) to put pressure on MPs to make it sound like she has achieved the best possible deal. In one sense, of course, she has. The EU was never going to give the Brexit brigade what they wanted, which was essentially membership of the EU without paying any of the costs. Given that starting point, the PM can justifiably say that she has concluded a deal that minimises the risks to the UK economy, which is what we have wanted all along. The question is whether she has paid too high a price.

I suspect the answer is yes. The UK is locked into various aspects of the EU that Brexiteers wanted to get away from. It is still largely beholden to the product standards of the single market and therefore to the rulings of the ECJ. Britain cannot unilaterally leave the backstop customs arrangement which prevents the imposition of a hard border with Ireland. And worst of all, there was little to nothing in the agreement that covered the non-tariff barriers that govern services trade. Financial services, for example, continue to be given short shrift with last week's political agreement suggesting that future arrangements would be based on some form of equivalency. Just as a reminder, the current equivalency arrangements effectively allow the EU to pull the plug on third country institutions with 30 days’ notice.

But for all the shortcomings of the deal, what is particularly irritating is the tone of the PM's letter. It reminded me very much of the speeches May gave in 2016 and 2017, in which her inner school mistress was evident, telling us that she was doing all sorts of terrible things for our own good.

"From my first day in the job, I knew I had a clear mission before me - a duty to fulfil on your behalf: to honour the result of the referendum and secure a brighter future for our country by negotiating a good Brexit deal with the EU." Never mind the fact that 48% did not vote for this. And no acknowledgement that things have changed in the interim. The electorate was only asked whether it wanted to leave the EU - not about the terms on which it will do so - and there is a mounting sense that a plurality of voters believes the June 2016 option to have been the wrong choice.

"We will take back control of our borders, by putting an end to the free movement of people once and for all." An end to free movement cuts both ways, of course. It means Brits will find it harder to work and travel within the EU (and it will in any case continue during the transition phase). "Instead of an immigration system based on where a person comes from, we will build one based on the skills and talents a person has to offer." Having last week accused those EU citizens taking jobs in the UK as queue jumpers, the PM again fails to acknowledge that the majority of those entering the UK are non-EU citizens.

The next sentence was just a downright lie: "We will take back control of our money, by putting an end to vast annual payments to the EU. Instead, we will be able to spend British taxpayers' money on our own priorities, like the extra £394 million per week that we are investing in our long-term plan for the NHS." The extra money committed to the NHS came from a windfall gain that the OBR found in UK public revenues that has been blown in one fell swoop - it has nothing to do with EU budget commitments. If we are going to pillory the Leave campaign for making the kind of misleading statements they made in 2016, we should also give the prime minister both barrels for the same kind of lie.

"And we will take back control of our laws, by ending the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice in the UK. In future, our laws will be made, interpreted and enforced by our own courts and legislatures." As noted above, they will not. The UK will be bound to the ECJ for a long time to come.

"Outside the EU, we will be able to sign new trade deals with other countries and open up new markets in the fastest-growing economies around the world." Really? What if the UK is still bound into the customs union? Legally it is not permissible to conduct trade deals with third countries so long as the UK remains inside. "With Brexit settled, we will be able to focus our energies on the many other important issues facing us here at home." Brexit settled? Don’t make me laugh.

The letter ends with a call for national unity suggesting that 29 March "must mark the point when we put aside the labels of 'Leave' and 'Remain' for good and we come together again as one people. To do that, we need to get on with Brexit now by getting behind this deal." Why should we? The PM is selling out the half of voters who oppose Brexit and despite the untruths contained in the letter, it comes nowhere close to giving people the kind of Brexit they thought they were voting for.

Up to now, I have suggested that the withdrawal compromise cobbled together by the UK and EU27 was the least worst option. But having read the dishonest way in which the PM is selling it, I am tempted to change my mind. This is snake oil of the worst kind - a tissue of lies all the way through, and frankly deserves to be rejected by parliament on these grounds alone.

As a final twist, I noted that May ended her letter with the comment that "I will be campaigning with my heart and soul to win [the parliamentary] vote and to deliver this Brexit deal, for the good of our United Kingdom and all of our people." I recall that David Cameron also promised to campaign with all his heart and soul to remain in the EU back in 2013. And look what happened to him.

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