Imagine they held a coup and nobody came

Four days ago, amidst much media ballyhoo, the European Research Group began a campaign to launch a motion of no-confidence in Prime Minister Theresa May. All they had to do was get 48 Conservative MPs to sign up and, hey presto, the easiest election call in history. At the time of writing, they hadn't managed to do it. The powerful right-wing backbenchers that the prime minister has spent the last two years trying to appease continue to look like the disenchanted malcontents that they really are. All mouth and no trousers, as they say.

They may get the requisite 48 signatures one of these days. But the fact that it is taking them so long to do so weakens their case to be speaking for a large element of the Conservative Party. And the longer this drags on, the weaker they look. In some ways, their fate is beginning to look like that of Islamic State, which was a formidable terrorist organisation that occupied territory held by sovereign governments before being gradually pushed out by the well-organised forces ranged against them. IS are still dangerous but they are a shadow of their former selves. Without wishing to accuse the ERG of terrorism, they have infiltrated large parts of the Conservative Party and have occupied the political agenda by winning the 2016 referendum. However, as the inconvenient economic facts close in on them, they are fighting a losing battle to stay relevant. They are losing ground, and they know it. Even Theresa May is not scared of them anymore. The ERG has lost its power to intimidate and the PM is prepared to battle on her terms. 

The ERG is losing because it has never accepted the reality of Brexit. Over recent weeks prominent Leave-supporting MPs have made some ridiculous statements which have undermined their credibility and do make you wonder whether they are looking at the issues in the same way as other rational people. Take, for example, former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab’s comment that “I hadn’t understood the full extent of this but … we’re particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing.” This is the port through which a lorry passes every 12 seconds of the day and through which 17% of UK merchandise trade flows. Or take Nadine Dorries’ comment that Theresa May’s deal with the EU gives us “No voice; no votes; no MEPs; no Commissioner.” Seriously? And just to prove that the inability to face up to reality knows no party bounds, when faced with a quote by EU President Juncker that the UK will not get a deal that is as advantageous as EU membership, Jeremy Corbyn responded “Well that was his view. We have a different one.” 

Brexiteers may have won the 2016 referendum but they never knew how to deliver Brexit. It is not as if they have not had plenty of opportunities: Two Brexit Secretaries and a Foreign Secretary, all with influence over the relationship with the EU and all have walked out. They will undoubtedly continue to intervene from the backbenches but they have four months to pull a non-existent rabbit from an invisible hat and nobody believes they can do it. 

This does not mean that the Withdrawal Agreement will necessarily pass through parliament. Too many people oppose it for different reasons. I am thus increasingly of the view that extending the Article 50 deadline is the best option and sure enough, Michel Barnier yesterday proposed extending Britain’s transition period out of the EU until end-2022. Naturally it will cost more – another €10bn is the figure being put about, which is broadly the same as the UK’s current net contribution. So that's OK then: Pay the same and have no say over the rules. 

What is particularly irritating is that it was so blindingly obvious that this was going to happen, yet politicians blindly led us to the edge of the cliff despite being told they were on the wrong track. We told you that the EU would extract a quid pro quo as the UK left. We told you that the UK would lose any say over the rules whilst still paying into the budget. And we warned you that it was virtually impossible to take back control in a globalised world. For those MPs who still think they can negotiate the impossible deal, I have a bridge to sell you.