DExEU's Midnight Runners

Today has been another one of the momentous days in British politics which appear to have become all too frequent as a result of Brexit. Yesterday’s cabinet meeting was an ominous sign that all that was not well: Whilst the Withdrawal Agreement is a large document, and was always going to take a long time to digest, it was evident that a five hour meeting hinted at major disagreements. And so it proved when Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab tendered his resignation this morning.

This comes just four months after the previous incumbent, David Davis, resigned when it became clear he could not support the Chequers Plan. To misquote Oscar Wilde, to lose one Brexit Secretary is unfortunate but to lose two is careless. To be charitable, the job of Brexit Secretary is a thankless task for a Leaver when the process is being controlled by the prime minister’s office. But it is also an indication of how difficult it is to deliver the kind of EU departure that would satisfy Brexit supporters. In addition to Raab and Davis, we should not forget that junior minister Steve Baker, another prominent Brexit supporter, also left DExEU in July to form the trio we should name DExEU’s Midnight Runners. As was the case in the wake of the referendum in summer 2016, it is another example of how Brexit supporters tend to run away from the mess they have created. And when they have been given ministerial responsibility, they have not exactly covered themselves in glory with Boris Johnson widely regarded as one of the worst Foreign Secretaries of all time.

But it is not just Brexiteers who object to the Withdrawal Agreement, as Theresa May’s session to parliament indicated this morning. Many MPs will vote against the EU agreement for a variety of reasons – perhaps because they are opposed to the terms of the deal, or simply because they oppose Brexit. Or, in the case of the opposition Labour Party, because the leadership sees this as an opportunity to force a general election. Despite the mounting opposition, Theresa May is doggedly determined to put the Withdrawal Agreement to parliament. And as I noted yesterday, it can still pass depending on the number of Conservative dissenters. But the risks are rising.

The first problem is the position of the prime minister herself. Jacob Rees-Mogg was the first MP to send a letter of no confidence in the PM to the backbench 1922 Committee and up to 12 others have confirmed they have followed suit. Recall that it will take 48 such letters to trigger a leadership contest. JRM has no chance of becoming leader himself and of the others known to have sent letters, the likes of Brexiteers Steve Baker, Nadine Dorries and Andrew Bridgen have as much chance of becoming PM as I do of winning the Nobel Prize for physics. Indeed, the latter two characters belong to the category of politician characterised by Irish journalist Fintan O’Toole as “the genuine hallmarked, unadulterated, slack-jawed, open-mouthed, village idiot variety.” As O’Toole pointed out “the Brexiteer MP Nadine Dorries admitted in effect that she didn’t know what a customs union is. Her comrade Andrew Bridgen said last month: ‘As an English person, I do have the right to go over to Ireland and I believe that I can ask for a passport. Can’t I?’” (Don’t believe it? Listen here.)

Whatever the PM’s personal position, we now have to reckon with the real possibility that the Withdrawal Agreement may not pass through parliament. What happens if it does not? The first recourse would be to go back to Brussels and secure a minor concession on the pretext of being able to put the bill before parliament for a second time. If that fails then Theresa May is in real trouble. The sensible strategy at that point would be to extend the duration of the Article 50 process, which is possible if there is unanimity on all sides. But May explicitly ruled out that option this morning (again).  So either she reneges on her commitment or is forced to resign whilst another Conservative prime minister is installed who is prepared to extend the Article 50 period. Politicians at this stage appear more likely to ask for an extension than push for a second referendum. In any case, given that time is short, it is likely that an extended Article 50 period is a prerequisite to enable a “people’s vote” because it almost certainly cannot now take place before 29 March 2019.

None of this will satisfy the “slack-jawed, open-mouthed, village idiot” brigade which believes that no deal is better than compromise. But they are losing ground in the war to deliver their form of Brexit. A poll conducted today by Sky News suggests that whilst only 14% of respondents support the prime minister’s deal, 54% would prefer no Brexit versus just 32% for a no deal outcome. We know how reliable polls can be, but this is not a one-off result. And whilst Theresa May gets a pretty low approval rating of just 31% in  terms of those most trusted to lead the country through the Brexit process, she still leads Jeremy Corbyn and is well ahead of Boris Johnson and JRM.

For politicians who set so much store by delivering the “will of the people” it seems that many of them have lost touch with it. The electorate is becoming fed up with the political posturing and any politician prepared to gamble with the country’s economic future ought to think twice, for the electorate may yet wreak its revenge.