Time is running out

I noted three days ago how pro-Brexit campaigners appear to be distancing themselves from the whole idea. Since then, more evidence has come to light suggesting that British businesses are not being listened to by government. This matters. Many people might see businesses as insatiable users of human resources, chewing people up and spitting them out at a whim. But they are the providers of jobs and income for the vast majority of us. If businesses are not going to get a Brexit which works for them, in whose name are we doing this? A Brexit which does not work for business will not work for the UK economy.

Only last week, the CBI called for the UK to remain within the single market and customs union until such times as the shape of the final deal was clear. But British government officials torpedoed that option because, according to observers present, Brexit Secretary David Davis fears a political backlash if the UK is seen to be backtracking on its commitment to leave. He is concerned that politicians would be judged harshly if it opts for what can best be described as the Hotel California option – having checked out it, it can never leave. In my view this is to misread the domestic political runes. And it would not be the first time this year that the Conservatives have done so. Indeed, Davis is said to have been instrumental in persuading Theresa May to call the spring election, so I am not sure I would necessarily trust his political judgement. Moreover, surveys suggest that the electorate is not in favour of a hard Brexit. The election was a warning shot across the bows of a party which campaigned on the basis of “no deal is better than a bad deal” and was punished at the ballot box. And if “taking back control” was so important to the electorate, why did UKIP – the party which pushed so hard for it – take such an electoral hammering?

This morning’s story from The Observer warning that the UK cannot expect any help from German business in securing a favourable Brexit deal is further evidence of the delusions under which too many UK politicians are operating. Senior representatives of German industry bodies have repeated what I (and many others) have said all along, namely that the main objective for the EU is to maintain the integrity of the single market. A few months back I had a meeting with a group of senior German politicians, some of whom told me very firmly that Germany would not go out of its way to help the UK if it meant sacrificing relationships with other EU members. I am sure they have said the same things to their British counterparts, but too many British politicians appear to have selective hearing (or should that be understanding) when it comes to Brexit issues.

It is this attitude which brought to mind the Bagehot column in The Economist a couple of weeks ago. The article criticised the government for dealing with the needs of business in an amateur way and highlighted that the only realist is Chancellor Philip Hammond, who “is a grown-up in a political playpen that is stuffed with children. The chief claimant to the throne, Boris Johnson, is the most childish of all. Bumptious and bungling, he wants to grab the shiniest prize for himself for no other reason than that it is shiny. Other claimants also have problems with maturity. David Davis, the Brexit secretary, is a vainglorious contrarian who … habitually underestimates the damage a bad Brexit might cause ... On the other side, Mr Corbyn is an extreme case of arrested development. He is a man-child leading an army of disgruntled youths, a professional protester who has reached his late 60s without ever having to make adult decisions about allocating limited resources, let alone creating them in the first place.”

As it happens, I am pretty sure that the government will be forced to cave in on its Brexit negotiating position. Despite the position espoused by Davis earlier this week, The Observer reports that the government is warming to the idea of a transition deal. Perhaps they are waiting for the EU27 to offer some form of olive branch which will allow them to change course. Perhaps the EU27 is prepared to face down the UK in order for it to change of its own free will. But in an economy where real incomes are falling thanks to the rise in inflation triggered by a fall in the pound, and where consumer sentiment has fallen sharply back to immediate post-referendum lows, I suspect the electorate is in no mood to pay the economic price for the government’s shenanigans. Politicians need to get real – and fast – because in effect they have a year to finalise the arrangements before the EU’s deadline of autumn 2018.  The sound you hear is the clock ticking …