Automotive for the people

In 1979, Gary Numan had hits with two songs which topped the charts around the world: Are Friends Electric and Cars. Almost forty years later, societies are asking themselves whether electric cars are their new friends as policy makers in France and the UK propose a ban on the sale of petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040 in order to encourage the sale of electric vehicles.

According to the IEA around 17% of global CO₂ emissions derive from road transport – a figure which rises to 19% in non-G20 countries (see p35, here). It is thus understandable why governments want to take action. But there are lots of issues which need addressing before we accept that this is a “good” policy, and I do wonder how much of this policy has been thought through. For one thing, it will take action by more than just the UK and France to have much impact on global CO₂ emissions. When the US and China follow suit the policy will have a lot more resonance – or if it were an EU wide initiative, it would make more sense.

The big issue at the heart of the debate is that electric cars are simply not as green as many proponents would have us believe. Sure, they emit less CO₂ but the electricity to power them has to be generated somewhere and if all we do is build more coal-fired power stations it rather defeats the object. It is unlikely, of course, that the government would permit a return to coal, so how will we generate the additional power? Let us start by trying to understand the scale of the problem. The National Grid recently estimated that raising the number of electric vehicles could increase peak UK electricity demand by 8 gigawatts (GW). That is the equivalent of building three new power stations the size of the much-disputed Hinkley Point nuclear station. Admittedly, this does represent an extreme case, with greater use of off-peak charging likely to mitigate the scale of the problem, but it nonetheless makes the point that putting more electric cars on the road requires building more generating capacity.

Having determined that the UK will require up to an additional 8GW of electricity just to keep our cars on the road, how will we generate it? We could simply build another three Hinkley  Point-type nuclear stations, but given all the concerns regarding their cost – not to mention the perennial problem of how to get rid of the waste – this would be highly controversial. We could add more wind turbines but it would mean raising capacity by 50% and we all know how intermittent wind power can be. Solar is probably a non-starter in the UK. However, tidal may be an option with a barrage across the River Severn – which has the second largest tidal range in the word – potentially capable of generating 8GW at peak flow, which would be operational for 8 hours per day, according to a 1989 study. It would be costly (up to £34bn on one estimate, which is almost double the cost of one Hinkley Point) but potentially feasible.

So let us assume that we can generate the electricity. What about the technology – is it good enough to supersede the internal combustion engine?  Only this week, Tesla handed over its first Model 3 which costs $35,000 and has a range of 220 miles (350 km) – about one-third what a larger diesel-engine vehicle is capable of delivering. A longer range version will do 450km on one set of batteries but it costs a third more and is still more limited than cars can do today. In order to manage a 900 km journey across Europe, the standard model requires two charges which, given current battery technology, is not going to be a quick process. Perhaps we could swap over the battery rig, with fully-charged batteries replacing the old ones. This would mean making a couple of quick stops whilst the batteries are swapped but it is not dissimilar to the current process of refilling our cars at a filling station. So far, so possible (at least not too impossible).

But what happens during the transition process towards our 2040 cut-off point? Relatively few people will want to buy a new petrol or diesel car after 2030 given the lack of resale value, so we will need to see significant advances in electronic car technology by then in order to convince people that the transition will happen. That is just 13 years away. And will there be a scrapping scheme to help individuals make the switch (that will be costly)? Will car companies be able to ramp up production to meet likely demand – the likes of Ford argue that Tesla will struggle to increase production on the scale required?  Indeed it is possible that until many of these questions are answered, many Brits (and French) will act like the Cubans by keeping their old cars on the road for longer than they would otherwise do (assuming that petrol stations are not phased out). And how will the oil companies respond? How will governments fill the revenue gap left by the fall in fuel duty which they currently levy on the motorist?

One standard response to these objections is to cast your mind back to 1994 to a pre-internet age when many of the things we take for granted today seemed like science fiction. But the difference is that the technology evolved, and was not imposed upon us. We can still go down to the High Street rather than rely on Amazon deliveries, but the policy as currently portrayed is a bit like abolishing the practice of letter writing in favour of email. Clearly, there are more questions than answers.

Most people are prepared to do their bit to help save the planet but we need a properly thought out response to the questions raised. Announcing a plan then saying we will work out the details as we go along is not a sensible policy strategy. Let us not forget that in the UK, it was new environment minister Michael Gove who announced the death knell of vehicles fuelled by carbon. This was the same man who was fabulously short on detail as to how Brexit would work. There again, he can always go back to his team of experts to help him out – if he hasn’t had enough of them.