They say that time flies as you get older. That must make me
positively ancient, as I can so vividly recall the events of 23-24 June 2016 as
if it were yesterday. I am referring, of course, to the EU referendum. The effects of
that vote have been socially and politically profound, and although the
economic impacts have so far been modest they will make their presence felt
over time.
For a vote which was designed to heal divisions within the Conservative Party over Europe, it was a catastrophic failure. It still threatens to tug at the unity of the UK: even though the pressure for a second independence referendum in Scotland has diminished in the wake of the election, it has not gone away completely and the position of Northern Ireland within the union may be called into question in the longer term, even though a split appears unlikely in the near future. There is a clear split between the aspirations of younger and older generations, as evidenced by voting patterns last June and again in the recent general election. And the intervening twelve months have done nothing to lessen the differences of opinion between those who wish to leave the EU and those who wish to stay. In short, the referendum resolved nothing – as I never thought it would. Indeed, I have always believed that whatever the outcome, the UK would remain semi-detached members of the EU and I stand by that view today.
Regular readers of these pages (and thanks to you all for sticking with it) will know that my anger at the Brexit issue is less about the result itself than about the lies used by self-serving politicians to serve their own ends, aided and abetted by sections of the media which have an ideological agenda. Politicians simply invented economic facts which to me is unacceptable (the most famous of which was the claim that leaving the EU would allow the government to direct an additional £350 million of extra resources per week to the NHS). They lied on immigration by failing to point out that more than half of the immigrants into the UK over the past decade came from non-EU countries, where the UK has control over its borders (they omitted to mention that a large number of these non-EU immigrants were students who support British universities).
But the biggest lie of all was that the EU needed the UK more than it needed the EU and that the EU27 would beg to do a deal which would give us exactly the same conditions as we enjoyed previously, but with extra flexibility to do great deals with non-EU countries. None of these assertions was backed up by evidence. Indeed, the only economic study showing evidence in favour of Brexit was based on assumptions so heroic it makes Superman look like a coward (notably the idea that the EU would be forced to halve the levels of protection on imports from outside the bloc – see here for further detail).
The likes of Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Michael Gove, Daniel Hannan and Matthew Elliott portrayed themselves as economic liberators who could lead the UK to the sunny uplands of a brighter economic future. I note that none them studied economics or business and only Farage has any claim to a business career. Nor is there a scientist amongst them who appears to recognise the value of hard evidence. On the basis that the dictionary definition of treason is “the crime of betraying one's country”, those who promoted the economic case for Brexit are closer to traitors than liberators.
As for where we go from here, that is all still up in the air. The government has been forced to backtrack on many of its initial Brexit positions. Theresa May herself was nominally a Remainer who appears to have become a champion of hard Brexit; parliament was originally to be denied a vote on the terms of the Brexit deal once it had been agreed with the EU27 (now it will be allowed a vote); the government also initially planned to invoke Article 50 without a parliamentary vote but was forced by the courts to do so and a suggestion that that companies would have to publish figures on their number of foreign workers was also quickly dropped. Add in the fact that only this week the UK quickly caved in to EU demands on the sequencing of the Brexit negotiations, and large parts of the government’s manifesto did not make into the Queen’s Speech (meaning that it will not be enacted during this parliamentary term), and you have to wonder how many other red lines will be crossed.
A survey published in The Times this morning (here for an overview ) suggests that a 58% majority wants a deal in which the UK continues to have free access to trade with the EU whilst allowing EU citizens the right to live and work in the UK. Only 42% preferred the alternative of full control over immigration but British businesses having no access to the EU single market. This was actually the choice we were faced with a year ago, only it was not put this way. Bottom line: There is no appetite for a hard Brexit, and it is becoming increasingly apparent that the government misread the message delivered by the electorate last year, which I maintain was more a howl of rage than a desire to pull up the drawbridge.
My preferred solution is that the UK does not leave the EU at all. I don’t wish to sound like a disaffected Remoaner but it is not impossible that if the negotiations drag on for a decade or more, resulting in a second referendum given that many people will have forgotten why the UK voted to leave in the first place, the generational shift in the electorate may produce a different result. The sensible strategy from the EU’s perspective would thus be to offer a deal in 2019 which the UK finds unacceptable but be willing to extend the negotiating period indefinitely. If Theresa May’s government wishes to do a deal more quickly than that (and it does) I suggest that the EU offers the UK access to the single market at a price which is lower than that which it currently pays but with correspondingly reduced rights. Indeed, I have made this point before but have since read that the German government takes a similar view.
As for where we will be in a year’s time, I suspect not much further forward. If the EU plays hardball on the Brexit bill and the UK refuses to back down, the clock will be running down without any tangible sign of progress on the trade deal which the UK so badly wants. This is all so unnecessary because it’s self-inflicted and was predictable all along. For those who led the Brexit campaign, I say only this: Judgement Day is coming.
For a vote which was designed to heal divisions within the Conservative Party over Europe, it was a catastrophic failure. It still threatens to tug at the unity of the UK: even though the pressure for a second independence referendum in Scotland has diminished in the wake of the election, it has not gone away completely and the position of Northern Ireland within the union may be called into question in the longer term, even though a split appears unlikely in the near future. There is a clear split between the aspirations of younger and older generations, as evidenced by voting patterns last June and again in the recent general election. And the intervening twelve months have done nothing to lessen the differences of opinion between those who wish to leave the EU and those who wish to stay. In short, the referendum resolved nothing – as I never thought it would. Indeed, I have always believed that whatever the outcome, the UK would remain semi-detached members of the EU and I stand by that view today.
Regular readers of these pages (and thanks to you all for sticking with it) will know that my anger at the Brexit issue is less about the result itself than about the lies used by self-serving politicians to serve their own ends, aided and abetted by sections of the media which have an ideological agenda. Politicians simply invented economic facts which to me is unacceptable (the most famous of which was the claim that leaving the EU would allow the government to direct an additional £350 million of extra resources per week to the NHS). They lied on immigration by failing to point out that more than half of the immigrants into the UK over the past decade came from non-EU countries, where the UK has control over its borders (they omitted to mention that a large number of these non-EU immigrants were students who support British universities).
But the biggest lie of all was that the EU needed the UK more than it needed the EU and that the EU27 would beg to do a deal which would give us exactly the same conditions as we enjoyed previously, but with extra flexibility to do great deals with non-EU countries. None of these assertions was backed up by evidence. Indeed, the only economic study showing evidence in favour of Brexit was based on assumptions so heroic it makes Superman look like a coward (notably the idea that the EU would be forced to halve the levels of protection on imports from outside the bloc – see here for further detail).
The likes of Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Michael Gove, Daniel Hannan and Matthew Elliott portrayed themselves as economic liberators who could lead the UK to the sunny uplands of a brighter economic future. I note that none them studied economics or business and only Farage has any claim to a business career. Nor is there a scientist amongst them who appears to recognise the value of hard evidence. On the basis that the dictionary definition of treason is “the crime of betraying one's country”, those who promoted the economic case for Brexit are closer to traitors than liberators.
As for where we go from here, that is all still up in the air. The government has been forced to backtrack on many of its initial Brexit positions. Theresa May herself was nominally a Remainer who appears to have become a champion of hard Brexit; parliament was originally to be denied a vote on the terms of the Brexit deal once it had been agreed with the EU27 (now it will be allowed a vote); the government also initially planned to invoke Article 50 without a parliamentary vote but was forced by the courts to do so and a suggestion that that companies would have to publish figures on their number of foreign workers was also quickly dropped. Add in the fact that only this week the UK quickly caved in to EU demands on the sequencing of the Brexit negotiations, and large parts of the government’s manifesto did not make into the Queen’s Speech (meaning that it will not be enacted during this parliamentary term), and you have to wonder how many other red lines will be crossed.
A survey published in The Times this morning (here for an overview ) suggests that a 58% majority wants a deal in which the UK continues to have free access to trade with the EU whilst allowing EU citizens the right to live and work in the UK. Only 42% preferred the alternative of full control over immigration but British businesses having no access to the EU single market. This was actually the choice we were faced with a year ago, only it was not put this way. Bottom line: There is no appetite for a hard Brexit, and it is becoming increasingly apparent that the government misread the message delivered by the electorate last year, which I maintain was more a howl of rage than a desire to pull up the drawbridge.
My preferred solution is that the UK does not leave the EU at all. I don’t wish to sound like a disaffected Remoaner but it is not impossible that if the negotiations drag on for a decade or more, resulting in a second referendum given that many people will have forgotten why the UK voted to leave in the first place, the generational shift in the electorate may produce a different result. The sensible strategy from the EU’s perspective would thus be to offer a deal in 2019 which the UK finds unacceptable but be willing to extend the negotiating period indefinitely. If Theresa May’s government wishes to do a deal more quickly than that (and it does) I suggest that the EU offers the UK access to the single market at a price which is lower than that which it currently pays but with correspondingly reduced rights. Indeed, I have made this point before but have since read that the German government takes a similar view.
As for where we will be in a year’s time, I suspect not much further forward. If the EU plays hardball on the Brexit bill and the UK refuses to back down, the clock will be running down without any tangible sign of progress on the trade deal which the UK so badly wants. This is all so unnecessary because it’s self-inflicted and was predictable all along. For those who led the Brexit campaign, I say only this: Judgement Day is coming.
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