Trump's climate clanger

Although much of the current media attention is focused on Donald Trump’s rather unfortunate comments in the wake of the latest London terror attack, his decision last week to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement on climate change was a much bigger deal. To recap, the agreement was drawn up in the first place in a bid to limit global greenhouse gas emissions in order to curb the rise in global temperatures and thus prevent some of the worst effects of climate change from causing even more environmental damage. There are 195 signatories to the treaty, with only Syria, Nicaragua and the Vatican not having signed up. However, the US decision to withdraw not only drives a coach and horses through global cooperation efforts on climate change, but it raises question marks against the commitment of the US to a whole range of international agreements.

Turning first to the climate issues, I am not a climate scientist so I am bound by the consensus of expert opinion which has done the work and drawn the conclusions. What everyone agrees on is that the earth is warming rapidly – global temperatures are around 2 degrees higher than when measurement commenced in the late nineteenth century. We also know that the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is at unprecedented levels (see chart, courtesy of NASA). 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reckons that “anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions … are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.” Note that it does not say with 100% probability that climate change is man-made, but “extremely likely” is the sort of language scientists use when they are fairly sure. It may be that they are wrong, but until such times as the world’s most reputable scientists change their minds I’ll go with what they know, rather than wwhat various interest groups believe to be true. And even if the scientists are wrong, it is a better insurance policy to take offsetting action rather than ignore them and find out they were right.

The science of climate change also suggests that global warming will have significant impacts on weather patterns, crop growing cycles, access to water and has the potential to disrupt the way we live our lives (for an overview of all these issues, see the Stern Review, which reported in 2006). As Stern pointed out, climate change “entails costs that are not paid for by those who create the emissions … Questions of intra- and inter-generational equity are central. Climate change will have serious impacts within the lifetime of most of those alive today. Future generations will be even more strongly affected, yet they lack representation in present-day decisions.”

Trump’s decision is the ultimate in short-term thinking designed to satisfy a tiny proportion of his country’s electorate whilst ignoring the wider consequences for their children (viz the wonderful response by Emmanuel Macron to Trump’s decision). Quite what better deal Trump has in mind for American workers by pulling out of the agreement is hard to fathom. After all, there are fewer people employed in coal mining in the US than in the green tech sector so it is not exactly a rational response to domestic issues. It is also a wider abrogation of duty to the rest of the planet, for as Stern also pointed out, solutions to the climate change problem require a global response.

There is thus general agreement that Trump’s strategy is self-defeating with regard to climate issues. But an equally serious concern is that an America first strategy runs counter to the rules-based system which underpins the world economic architecture and which has served the US so well for the past 70 years. An America which does not adhere to the treaty commitments to which it has signed up cannot expect others to play by the rules which the US flagrantly ignores. It may “only” be climate change, the implications of which will not become fully evident until after Trump is long gone, and in any case the US can always sign up again under a different president. But can the US expect all countries to adhere to the rules on global trade if for some reason it does not suit them? To what extent can the US’s military allies in Asia or Europe rely on its support?

International diplomacy is a game of give and take. Unfortunately, Trump appears to see it as a game of winner takes all. Moreover, he has not yet demonstrated that he understands the notion of cooperation on global issues (not that the British government is in any position to cast aspersions). But if Trump has any pretensions to providing leadership on a global scale, the climate change policy needs to be rethought. Future generations of voters may thank him for it.