As I noted back in April (was it really that long ago?) this
election is being fought purely for tactical reasons – and indeed the prime
minister admitted yesterday that the decision to call yet another plebiscite
was driven by Brexit-related reasons. In my view, this is nonsense. The rest of
the EU does not care how large the PM’s majority is: The UK will still be in a
minority of one in the Brexit negotiations. But the size of the majority
matters for May herself. A parliamentary majority around 50 (still decent,
let’s not forget) would be seen as the equivalent of a draw. Anything less would
put the PM in a difficult position as she has to deal with the right-wing of
her party, which has a habit of making life difficult for Conservative prime
ministers. In effect, she needs a big win to give her a personal mandate.
So why are the polls narrowing? It can simply be boiled down to two factors: personality and policies. As George Parker wrote in the Financial Times today, “Theresa May thought a snap election would empower her, but what started in April as a quest for a “strong mandate” to deliver Brexit is threatening to leave her diminished. Polls suggest the more people see of her, the less popular she becomes.” Her main opponent, Jeremy Corbyn, started out as a no-hoper who couldn’t be trusted to run a bath, let alone the country, yet he is the one who has looked at ease in dealing with the hostile questioning (the odd brain fade during interviews notwithstanding). Corbyn has had to deal with questions about his past support for terrorist organisations and his willingness to press the nuclear trigger in the event it becomes necessary, and all-in-all has come out of it rather better than most people expected. This does not make him prime minister-in-waiting, however. Corbyn has spent the whole of his parliamentary career (34 years) opposing the mainstream of his party on most key issues. He will struggle to find sufficient MPs loyal to him in the unlikely event he becomes PM.
So if the personalities are not very appealing, we must judge them on their policies. Here again, both sides are found wanting. In summary, the Conservatives propose too much austerity and Labour promises too much tax-and-spend. Neither has talked enough about the single biggest issue facing the UK during the next parliamentary term – Brexit. Indeed, the prime minister seems to be asking the electorate merely to trust that she will “deliver the best deal for Britain.” That is not good enough. I would be more inclined to listen to a politician who acknowledges what economists have been saying for the last four years, that Brexit comes with a cost – a big one – and that they have a plan to deal with it. A party which proposes that “no deal is better than a bad deal” does not cut it.
Meanwhile, Labour’s tax-and-spend policy is open to the criticism levied by Conservative politicians that “there isn’t a magic money tree” to fund their plans. This is, of course, spot on although if I were Jeremy Corbyn, I would be pointing out that senior Conservative politicians such as the Foreign Secretary only twelve months ago supported the idea that leaving the EU would immediately mean that the UK could devote an additional £350m per week to the NHS. The manifesto analysis conducted by the IFS last week provided a pretty damning assessment of the fiscal plans of both sides arguing that “neither sets out an honest set of choices.” Though as an aside, I found this blog piece by John Weeks an interesting insight into the shortcomings of the IFS’s analysis.
As we head towards polling day, I get the sense that many people are unenthused by the choices on offer. I almost have feelings of nostalgia for Screaming Lord Sutch and his Monster Raving Loony Party. Unlike Lord Sutch, the MRLP is still with us, however, and amongst their manifesto (or as they call it, manicfesto) commitments for 2017 are a pledge to “nationalise crime to make sure it doesn’t pay,” “reducing the alphabet to 23 characters. This will start by cutting the letters N. H. and S” and giving atheism charitable status on the grounds that it is a “non-prophet organization.” I’ve heard worse.
So why are the polls narrowing? It can simply be boiled down to two factors: personality and policies. As George Parker wrote in the Financial Times today, “Theresa May thought a snap election would empower her, but what started in April as a quest for a “strong mandate” to deliver Brexit is threatening to leave her diminished. Polls suggest the more people see of her, the less popular she becomes.” Her main opponent, Jeremy Corbyn, started out as a no-hoper who couldn’t be trusted to run a bath, let alone the country, yet he is the one who has looked at ease in dealing with the hostile questioning (the odd brain fade during interviews notwithstanding). Corbyn has had to deal with questions about his past support for terrorist organisations and his willingness to press the nuclear trigger in the event it becomes necessary, and all-in-all has come out of it rather better than most people expected. This does not make him prime minister-in-waiting, however. Corbyn has spent the whole of his parliamentary career (34 years) opposing the mainstream of his party on most key issues. He will struggle to find sufficient MPs loyal to him in the unlikely event he becomes PM.
So if the personalities are not very appealing, we must judge them on their policies. Here again, both sides are found wanting. In summary, the Conservatives propose too much austerity and Labour promises too much tax-and-spend. Neither has talked enough about the single biggest issue facing the UK during the next parliamentary term – Brexit. Indeed, the prime minister seems to be asking the electorate merely to trust that she will “deliver the best deal for Britain.” That is not good enough. I would be more inclined to listen to a politician who acknowledges what economists have been saying for the last four years, that Brexit comes with a cost – a big one – and that they have a plan to deal with it. A party which proposes that “no deal is better than a bad deal” does not cut it.
Meanwhile, Labour’s tax-and-spend policy is open to the criticism levied by Conservative politicians that “there isn’t a magic money tree” to fund their plans. This is, of course, spot on although if I were Jeremy Corbyn, I would be pointing out that senior Conservative politicians such as the Foreign Secretary only twelve months ago supported the idea that leaving the EU would immediately mean that the UK could devote an additional £350m per week to the NHS. The manifesto analysis conducted by the IFS last week provided a pretty damning assessment of the fiscal plans of both sides arguing that “neither sets out an honest set of choices.” Though as an aside, I found this blog piece by John Weeks an interesting insight into the shortcomings of the IFS’s analysis.
As we head towards polling day, I get the sense that many people are unenthused by the choices on offer. I almost have feelings of nostalgia for Screaming Lord Sutch and his Monster Raving Loony Party. Unlike Lord Sutch, the MRLP is still with us, however, and amongst their manifesto (or as they call it, manicfesto) commitments for 2017 are a pledge to “nationalise crime to make sure it doesn’t pay,” “reducing the alphabet to 23 characters. This will start by cutting the letters N. H. and S” and giving atheism charitable status on the grounds that it is a “non-prophet organization.” I’ve heard worse.
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