The big day dawns

We are less than a day away from the triggering of the Article 50 process which will signal the UK government’s determination to leave the EU. It is the equivalent of serving the divorce papers, and like most divorces it is unlikely to run smoothly. It was thus rather depressing to watch the BBC’s pre-Article 50 debate (here for those in the UK, and those outside the UK may have to be content with this). Having watched with increasing despondency the debates in the run up to the June referendum, I took no comfort from the fact that the country is still as divided on the issue as it was nine months ago and continue to believe that the government’s public position on its negotiating stance is naïve.

After the UK government communicates its desire to leave the EU, everything changes. The UK no longer has any control over how the negotiations will proceed and the ball will be very much in the court of its (soon-to-be erstwhile) EU partners. Although Theresa May has set out her 12 key negotiating points, I maintain that they are little more than a wish list. And if the key issue at the heart of the Brexit campaign was immigration, the UK government does not appear to have developed a clear strategy on how to proceed from here. Brexit minister David Davis yesterday confirmed that the government will not seek to cap the number of EU migrants working in the UK after Brexit, but expects that the government will eventually meet its target of cutting net migration to the “tens of thousands.” Short of redefining the migration statistics to exclude students, it most certainly will not be able to do so. I won’t bore you with the economic arguments about immigration again – suffice to say many people have it wrong about the balance of costs and benefits.

There are those who argue that the weakness of the EU is a good opportunity for PM May to press hard for a deal which will benefit the UK. Allister Heath in the Telegraph argues that “the rise of populism on the continent, the strength of Britain's economy and Europe's fear of terrorism all make a good deal for the UK more likely.” I’m not sure I agree that the EU is as weak as he makes out. The Dutch election earlier this month showed that Geert Wilders’ brand of populism was decisively rejected and latest polls put Emmanuel Macron ahead in the French election, suggesting that he will breeze the second round. The EU is not, in Heath’s words, “on the verge of the abyss.” It is weakened, for sure. But Brexit may even act as a catalyst to force it to rethink its strategy.

For those Brexit supporters who claim that it is not curbing immigration which is the real prize but the opportunity to strike new trade deals, Gideon Rachman’s recent column in the FT nicely skewers some of that thinking. Rachman argues that the UK establishment suffers from collective amnesia in which the national story is centred around the war against the Nazis rather than focusing on Britain’s imperial past. In Rachman’s words “Most British people, including leading politicians, are profoundly ignorant of the country’s imperial history. This imperial amnesia … means that leading Brexiters and advocates of “Global Britain” … speak warmly of returning to Britain’s historical vocation as a “great trading nation”, when it was actually a great imperial nation. That important distinction leads to overconfidence about the ease of re-creating a global trading destiny, in a world in which Britannia no longer rules the waves.”

In the first Brexit presentation I made, back in 2013, when I shared a platform with former Europe Minister Denis MacShane (before his conviction for expenses fraud), I recall making a similar point. Those who believe that the UK will be able to rely on our Commonwealth partners, claiming special historical ties, clearly do not see the imperial position through Indian (or Pakistani or Kenyan etc) eyes. The former British colonies have emerged from the shadow of their imperial past and have no desire to return to it. Indeed, Theresa May’s efforts to conduct a trade deal could be threatened by her refusal to reform visa restrictions for Indian citizens (here). 

For the 48.1% of us who voted in favour of Remain in June, the decision to trigger Article 50 will signal another step on the path away from the common Europe of which we hoped to remain part. I would like to think that whatever deal is struck, it will not inflict too much pain on the UK. But much will depend on the magnanimity of the EU, for what I have heard so far gives me little confidence in the UK’s negotiating strategy. When our own prime minster reckons “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain” you really have to wonder what we are letting ourselves in for.