Cool it (for now)

After years of resistance, I recently signed up for Twitter. After all, if the leader of the free world uses it to conduct policy, it’s where anyone with an interest in current affairs needs to be. And what a revelation! I was previously aware of the phenomenon of homophilous sorting (the tendency of people with similar interests to group together) but it is quite incredible how Twitter enables social divisions to occur. The people I tend to follow are very much anti-Brexit and given the torrent of commentary which they tweeted and retweeted in the wake of the Article 50 letter, it is hard to see how the electorate ever voted for Brexit in the first place. But in the interests of balance, I had to check out what the other side was saying – and yes, it was as bad as I feared.

This highlights that both sides in the Brexit debate talked past each other in the run-up to the referendum and clearly are still doing so today. Theresa May’s hope that the country will emerge more united after the EU negotiations, appears forlorn. Regular readers will know that I am totally opposed to the notion of Brexit but I can see why those in favour express irritation with people who argue that “Article 50 can still be stopped” or “we need another referendum to verify the terms of the deal.” Not that I necessarily disagree with the sentiments, but this is not the right time to make such arguments because it does come across as “Bremoaning” (such an ugly word) and merely hardens the position of those who are going all out for Brexit.

Indeed, it may be time to let the EU27 take up the cudgels on behalf of the Remainers. Already, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has suggested that the issue closest to the UK’s heart – securing a trade deal with the EU – will have to wait until exit terms are agreed whereas the UK’s position is that the two should run in parallel. For all the domestic bravado since June, we have known all along that the terms of engagement would change once the Article 50 letter was delivered. The pressure is now on those who argued that Brexit would result in a bright new future, to deliver on their promises (Boris Johnson, David Davis, and Liam Fox to name but three). Now we will see what they are made of, and if they are perceived to be failing to deliver, that is the time to really turn up the pressure because that is when some of the cracks in support for Brexit may begin to show.

Whatever happens after the EU negotiations have been concluded, and whether it is a “good” deal or not, it will be mighty hard to convince me that we will be as well placed as we were in the EU. Indeed, as Simon Wren-Lewis wrote in his latest blog post, “those who voted Leave didn’t win. If they wanted immigration to quickly fall, it won’t ... If they think their wages will rise because of Brexit they will see - are seeing - the opposite. £350 million to the NHS will become £50 odd billion to the EU ... In other words the big news is that Leave voters were conned.” Unfortunately, it will take many years for the full effects of the damage to become evident. If the economy grows 0.3% per year slower than it would have done otherwise, it will take 15 years to produce a 5% reduction in relative living standards. The real tragedy, of course, is that it is the children (and more likely grandchildren) of today’s Brexit supporters who will have to live with the folly of the vote (“tell me again grandad, how did you vote in the referendum?”).

In the longer term, of course, the sun will continue to rise and the world to turn and we will all have to deal with many personal heartbreaks which put Brexit into perspective. But Brexit will change Britain – and indeed will likely change the EU, and nowhere will the loss be more keenly felt than in Ireland and Germany.

Nonetheless, I do wonder how the political map of Britain will evolve on a 5-10 year horizon. If the UK does indeed suffer economically from Brexit, the right-wing of the Conservative Party will undoubtedly blame the current leadership for failing to deliver the right deal. This will probably push the Tories further to the right which could produce one of two outcomes. Either the Conservatives maintain their dominance with a leader who is even more in thrall to the Eurosceptics than anyone we have seen so far, and condemns the Labour Party to the irrelevance which is often predicted. Or – and history suggests this is more likely – the pendulum will swing, leaving space for the Labour Party to move towards the centre ground and capture the popular vote. However, they won’t do this as long as Jeremy Corbyn remains leader and it relies on regaining some ground in Scotland (I assume that Scotland will not be independent within five years though further ahead, I wouldn’t like to guess). An alternative prospect is that an element of the Conservative Party splits off to form a new political group, just as the Labour Party split in 1981 with key figures going off to form the centrist Social Democratic Party.

Whilst all this is necessarily speculative, it is a recognition that something is going to have to give in the political landscape. Too many people have too much political capital invested in Brexit (either for or against), for events not to go their way. And then there is the electorate in whose name all these shenanigans have taken place. My guess is voters care less about ideology than income and if Brexit fails to deliver the goods, it will not be the “experts” who have to answer questions – it will be the politicians.