As the self-imposed deadline for triggering the Article 50
legislation draws nearer, it has been a fascinating day of political
developments in the UK. First, we had the spectacle of Scottish First Minister
Nicola Sturgeon issuing a demand for a second referendum on independence
following the plebiscite in 2014. This was followed by the House of Commons
voting against any amendments proposed by the House of Lords to the Brexit
bill. It thus looks set to be passed into law tonight which in theory will allow
the prime minister to formally launch the UK’s departure
from the EU tomorrow. One of these events is historic enough, but the prospect
of both coming to pass will irrevocably change the nature of the UK. No more
United Kingdom, more Little Britain.
First, the Article 50 legislation. Regular readers will know my views: Leaving the EU is a leap in the dark which no amount of breezy confidence from politicians can conceal. Anyone who has ever done a parachute jump will know that for all the pre-jump training, nothing compares to that moment when you leap out of the aircraft for the first time and hope that nothing goes wrong with the chute. So it is with Article 50. If the EU does not play ball on the terms envisaged by the UK government, we could hit the ground with a big thump.
A fine article in The Times today by Clare Foges (here, although apologies for the fact it is behind a paywall) reiterated a point which I have long made, that far too many British politicians hark back to the way which Margaret Thatcher dealt with the tricky subject of UK-EU relations more than 30 years ago, and misinterpret what happened. Thatcher may have thumped the table in order to get her “money back” at the Fontainebleau Summit in 1984 but she did so knowing how far she could push German Chancellor Kohl and French President Mitterrand. She well understood that both Kohl and Mitterrand needed something in return which they could sell to their domestic electorates. In fact, Thatcher got less than she wanted – she was forced to settle for the minimum rebate – and she subsequently became a passionate advocate of the Single European Market. Moreover, as Foges points out, the UK was in the club looking forward to a future in Europe, and although the path was rocky the UK was broadly travelling in the same direction as other EU members.
Fast forward more than three decades to the tin-eared politicians braying that Theresa May should remember the spirit of Fontainebleau. The prime minister can recall the spirit of Nikita Khrushchev to her heart’s content by banging one of her many pairs of shoes on the conference table, but the EU will not listen to threats. The experience of Greece, which tried to dictate terms to the EU over its bailout package in 2015 but was humiliatingly forced to accept austerity conditions worse than those previously rejected, should serve as a salutary reminder that a confrontational approach will not work – even if the UK is not in quite the same position as Greece.
It is against this backdrop that Nicola Sturgeon has reactivated the prospect of another referendum on Scottish independence. Sturgeon’s position appears to be motivated by the fact that the Scottish people overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU and they are certainly not keen on the hard Brexit option being driven by Westminster. In Sturgeon’s words, “all of our efforts at compromise have been met with a brick wall of intransigence.” And whilst many people will have sympathy with Sturgeon’s view on Brexit, there is also a sense that she is using this as a device to push for what the Scottish National Party really wants – and all it has ever wanted – which is independence from the rest of the UK. But under the terms of the Scotland Act, a referendum can only be held with the consent of Westminster – it is not in the gift of the Scottish government to call it. And with Whitehall likely to be completely preoccupied in dealing with Brexit, it certainly will have no appetite for a referendum within the next two years, as Sturgeon is demanding.
As for what the people of Scotland want, there appears to be no great appetite for independence amongst the electorate at present, according to recent polls. Nor is Scotland’s economic position any better than in 2014 – arguably it is worse (I will deal with the economic situation another time). But just like 2014, any referendum will ultimately not be fought on the basis of economic logic. Already up to a third of voters retain an open mind on the prospect of independence and it will likely to be an easier sell than it was the first time round, so it could yet gain a great groundswell of support.
All in all, Brexit threatens to turn the UK political scene into an unholy mess (if it has not done so already). There is a sense that the government only cares about the views of the 52% who voted for Brexit; the Labour Party, which is nominally the opposition holding the government to account, has gone missing in action, and the SNP wants only to distance itself from the whole show. There is nothing United in the Kingdom nor Great about Britain, and if we get the politicians we deserve, what does that say about the voters?
First, the Article 50 legislation. Regular readers will know my views: Leaving the EU is a leap in the dark which no amount of breezy confidence from politicians can conceal. Anyone who has ever done a parachute jump will know that for all the pre-jump training, nothing compares to that moment when you leap out of the aircraft for the first time and hope that nothing goes wrong with the chute. So it is with Article 50. If the EU does not play ball on the terms envisaged by the UK government, we could hit the ground with a big thump.
A fine article in The Times today by Clare Foges (here, although apologies for the fact it is behind a paywall) reiterated a point which I have long made, that far too many British politicians hark back to the way which Margaret Thatcher dealt with the tricky subject of UK-EU relations more than 30 years ago, and misinterpret what happened. Thatcher may have thumped the table in order to get her “money back” at the Fontainebleau Summit in 1984 but she did so knowing how far she could push German Chancellor Kohl and French President Mitterrand. She well understood that both Kohl and Mitterrand needed something in return which they could sell to their domestic electorates. In fact, Thatcher got less than she wanted – she was forced to settle for the minimum rebate – and she subsequently became a passionate advocate of the Single European Market. Moreover, as Foges points out, the UK was in the club looking forward to a future in Europe, and although the path was rocky the UK was broadly travelling in the same direction as other EU members.
Fast forward more than three decades to the tin-eared politicians braying that Theresa May should remember the spirit of Fontainebleau. The prime minister can recall the spirit of Nikita Khrushchev to her heart’s content by banging one of her many pairs of shoes on the conference table, but the EU will not listen to threats. The experience of Greece, which tried to dictate terms to the EU over its bailout package in 2015 but was humiliatingly forced to accept austerity conditions worse than those previously rejected, should serve as a salutary reminder that a confrontational approach will not work – even if the UK is not in quite the same position as Greece.
It is against this backdrop that Nicola Sturgeon has reactivated the prospect of another referendum on Scottish independence. Sturgeon’s position appears to be motivated by the fact that the Scottish people overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU and they are certainly not keen on the hard Brexit option being driven by Westminster. In Sturgeon’s words, “all of our efforts at compromise have been met with a brick wall of intransigence.” And whilst many people will have sympathy with Sturgeon’s view on Brexit, there is also a sense that she is using this as a device to push for what the Scottish National Party really wants – and all it has ever wanted – which is independence from the rest of the UK. But under the terms of the Scotland Act, a referendum can only be held with the consent of Westminster – it is not in the gift of the Scottish government to call it. And with Whitehall likely to be completely preoccupied in dealing with Brexit, it certainly will have no appetite for a referendum within the next two years, as Sturgeon is demanding.
As for what the people of Scotland want, there appears to be no great appetite for independence amongst the electorate at present, according to recent polls. Nor is Scotland’s economic position any better than in 2014 – arguably it is worse (I will deal with the economic situation another time). But just like 2014, any referendum will ultimately not be fought on the basis of economic logic. Already up to a third of voters retain an open mind on the prospect of independence and it will likely to be an easier sell than it was the first time round, so it could yet gain a great groundswell of support.
All in all, Brexit threatens to turn the UK political scene into an unholy mess (if it has not done so already). There is a sense that the government only cares about the views of the 52% who voted for Brexit; the Labour Party, which is nominally the opposition holding the government to account, has gone missing in action, and the SNP wants only to distance itself from the whole show. There is nothing United in the Kingdom nor Great about Britain, and if we get the politicians we deserve, what does that say about the voters?
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