Having posted previously on the subject of incentives (here), and how important it is to ensure they are set correctly in order to avoid unintended consequences, the recent spate of warnings regarding pollution levels in London over the winter months brought the issue to mind once again. There are many contributory factors to high pollution levels in urban areas with climatic conditions exacerbating the problems caused by central heating systems and wood burners (one of the recent scapegoats). But one of the factors rising up the worry list in London is the problem caused by emissions from diesel engines (see chart).
Ironically, it is not long ago since diesel engines were
hailed as the great new clean technology which would save us from the choking
carbon dioxide emissions of petrol engines. Beginning in the early-1980s, UK excise
duties on diesel were set lower than those on petrol, though since the
late-1990s they have remained the same as those on unleaded fuel. From a fuel
consumption perspective diesel engines are more efficient than their petrol
equivalents, so even if the duty per litre is the same, the tax paid per mile
(or kilometre) travelled is lower for diesel than for petrol. Successive
governments were happy to encourage the switch to diesel engines because – we
were told – they emit less carbon dioxide than petrol, and this switch was seen
as one of the arrows in the quiver designed to reduce CO2 emissions
in line with international agreements. Unfortunately, diesel engines emit more
nitrogen oxides and small particulate matter, which is even worse for human
health than CO2. Moreover, the evidence appears to suggest that
their average CO2 emissions are no better than petrol engines.
The chemistry associated with the burning of diesel is not new. So how is it that governments across Europe have encouraged this trend? According to the academics Cames and Helmers (here) one argument is that “the European oil industry co-initiated the shift to diesel cars in the 1980s and 1990s in order to find outlets for middle distillates” which had collapsed as natural gas displaced heating oil as a fuel used in electricity generation. In addition, the increased use of nuclear power for generating purposes further increased the downward pressure on distillate demand. Whatever the reason, across most European countries, diesel cars received favourable tax treatment at the expense of petrol-engined cars. If governments were indeed using the switch as a cover to promote the need to reduce CO2 emissions it was at best misleading, and if the claims advanced by Cames and Helmers are true, it points to collusion between the interests of the oil industry and government.
This goes back to the point I made recently (here) about how there is evidence to suggest that interest groups can have undue influence over government policy which may not always be in the best interests of voters. Perhaps the most egregious example of this is the policy towards obesity in the western world. It has become accepted wisdom that the problem is caused by too much fat in the diet. However, as long ago as 1972, a scientist called John Yudkin wrote a book claiming that there is a clear correlation between the rise in heart disease and a rise in the consumption of sugar, and questioned whether there was any causal link between fat and heart disease. But the food industry struck back, led by a scientist called Ancel Keys who – aided and abetted by the sugar industry – proceeded to discredit Yudkin’s work. However, the work spearheaded in recent years by prominent scientists such as Robert Lustig, suggest that Yudkin had been right all along.
This was not a simple academic spat: It was an issue of fundamental scientific importance with implications for human health. It also highlights the problem that if a particular interest group funds research which is unequivocally accepted by government, and is used as the basis for public policy, there is an incentive to distort the research to ensure the desired outcome. I am not endorsing the claims of Cames and Helmers with regard to the influence of the oil industry. But the very fact that it has been hinted at indicates that the line between genuine scientific research and that conducted for ulterior motives is at best blurred.
As it happens, European countries have a pretty good track record in preventing dodgy research from slipping through the net – think of the good work done by the drug regulatory authorities. However, it is crucial that these high standards are maintained, which is something else for the UK government to think about as it embarks upon Brexit. And as the diesel and sugar episodes remind us, it is also important to think about the longer-term effects of today's policy choices. Failure to think long-term can - quite literally - be fatal.
The chemistry associated with the burning of diesel is not new. So how is it that governments across Europe have encouraged this trend? According to the academics Cames and Helmers (here) one argument is that “the European oil industry co-initiated the shift to diesel cars in the 1980s and 1990s in order to find outlets for middle distillates” which had collapsed as natural gas displaced heating oil as a fuel used in electricity generation. In addition, the increased use of nuclear power for generating purposes further increased the downward pressure on distillate demand. Whatever the reason, across most European countries, diesel cars received favourable tax treatment at the expense of petrol-engined cars. If governments were indeed using the switch as a cover to promote the need to reduce CO2 emissions it was at best misleading, and if the claims advanced by Cames and Helmers are true, it points to collusion between the interests of the oil industry and government.
This goes back to the point I made recently (here) about how there is evidence to suggest that interest groups can have undue influence over government policy which may not always be in the best interests of voters. Perhaps the most egregious example of this is the policy towards obesity in the western world. It has become accepted wisdom that the problem is caused by too much fat in the diet. However, as long ago as 1972, a scientist called John Yudkin wrote a book claiming that there is a clear correlation between the rise in heart disease and a rise in the consumption of sugar, and questioned whether there was any causal link between fat and heart disease. But the food industry struck back, led by a scientist called Ancel Keys who – aided and abetted by the sugar industry – proceeded to discredit Yudkin’s work. However, the work spearheaded in recent years by prominent scientists such as Robert Lustig, suggest that Yudkin had been right all along.
This was not a simple academic spat: It was an issue of fundamental scientific importance with implications for human health. It also highlights the problem that if a particular interest group funds research which is unequivocally accepted by government, and is used as the basis for public policy, there is an incentive to distort the research to ensure the desired outcome. I am not endorsing the claims of Cames and Helmers with regard to the influence of the oil industry. But the very fact that it has been hinted at indicates that the line between genuine scientific research and that conducted for ulterior motives is at best blurred.
As it happens, European countries have a pretty good track record in preventing dodgy research from slipping through the net – think of the good work done by the drug regulatory authorities. However, it is crucial that these high standards are maintained, which is something else for the UK government to think about as it embarks upon Brexit. And as the diesel and sugar episodes remind us, it is also important to think about the longer-term effects of today's policy choices. Failure to think long-term can - quite literally - be fatal.
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