Taking Europe's temperature

For all that many of the claims made by the UK Brexiteers are absurd, there is a rising tide of dissatisfaction across the whole of Europe towards the EU. This is a danger of which politicians and bureaucrats in Brussels must surely be aware. After all, the evidence comes from the European Commission’s own Eurobarometer survey. The survey, which is conducted biannually, has shown that since late-2011 more than 50% of respondents have registered a lack of trust in the EU whereas prior to the onset of the financial crisis in 2008, distrust levels were running at significantly less than 40%.

Ironically, there are seven countries above the UK in the latest Eurobarometer survey indicating high levels of EU distrust. Perhaps not surprisingly Greece tops the list with 78% of respondents expressing dissatisfaction. Worryingly, given the proximity of the French presidential election, France is in third place with 65% whilst Italy is sixth at 58%. The UK’s 56% dissatisfaction reading is only slightly ahead of Germany (53.2%) which also happens to be around the EU average (53.9%).

However, it is one thing to be dissatisfied with the status quo – it is another thing for voters to opt for departure as has happened in the UK. In a bid to assess the degree of Euroscepticism, perhaps we ought to pay closer attention to the degree of optimism shown by voters towards the future of the EU, on the basis that those who are the most pessimistic are the most likely to want to leave. Here, the picture is slightly different. On the whole, EU citizens show a moderate balance of net optimists (53%, if we exclude those expressing no opinion). But again, Greek citizens show the greatest degree of hostility with only 32% recording optimism regarding the future, whilst the French are in third place (42%) with the Brits fourth (44%).

On the basis that French optimism levels were lower than those of the UK even before the Brexit vote, this suggests that we should take the threat of Marine Le Pen more seriously than we are today. Although the generally accepted view is that Le Pen has no chance of winning the second round, there is a danger that too many pundits are looking back at 2002 and arguing that a coalition will form to stop the Front National (FN) winning the presidency at any cost – just as happened to her father. This view, which is expressed both in France and abroad, might be a touch complacent. Marine Le Pen is not the antagonistic figure that her father was (indeed, still is even in his eighties). If Le Pen continues to hammer home the message that the EU is the root cause of many of France’s ills, she may well run her challenger far closer than the expected 60-40 defeat that the polls currently predict. This is not to say she will win, but if the result is a close run thing, it does suggest that the FN is likely to be a force to be reckoned with in the years to come and that their popularity may not necessarily peak in 2017.

In any case, what has changed since 2002 is that immigration policy is far higher on the list of voter concerns than it was 15 years ago. The Eurobarometer survey indicates that at the EU level it is far and away the biggest concern, followed by terrorism issues, whilst the economic situation trails in a poor third. French voters apparently believe that unemployment is the biggest single domestic issue with immigration some way behind. If the FN manages to convince voters that the EU is partially responsible for the lack of jobs, it will only bolster their standing in the polls.

What is perhaps most concerning for politicians across the continent is that the degree of dissatisfaction which began to take hold in 2008 is gaining momentum. There is little doubt that the economic crisis of 2008, which morphed into a full-blown Greek debt crisis in 2010, has been badly handled. Greek voters are resentful that they have been forced to accept austerity whilst voters in other EMU countries are less than keen to continue providing support. The apparent inability of the EU to defend its borders, with the result that huge numbers of immigrants from the Middle East and North Africa have entered Europe, has also caused resentment. The German government’s policy of throwing open its doors in 2015 is widely perceived to have exacerbated the problem because it has raised tensions in other countries on the transit route that were not consulted.

All this is happening at a time when Europe lacks leaders unable to sell a vision of what the EU can achieve. At least in the days of Kohl and Mitterrand we knew the direction in which Europe was travelling even if not everyone agreed. Without strong leadership, the EU as we know it is doomed – at best to irrelevance, at worst to further fragmentation. The Eurobarometer surveys make it clear what EU citizens are concerned about. But is anyone in Brussels listening?