Yesterday’s intervention by former PM Tony Blair (here for
full speech)
calling for a rethink of the Brexit decision was both spot on and deeply
troubling. On the one hand he perfectly nailed the hypocrisy of the case for leaving
the EU – like Nick Clegg, I agreed with every single word – and calls for “a time to rise up in defence of what we
believe”. Yet this was the same prime minister who failed to listen to the majority
of the people when involving Britain in a highly unpopular war in Iraq. It also
starkly highlights the lack of opposition to a government which appears bent on
“Brexit at any cost”, as the party he used to lead slavishly follows the
Conservatives in ramming through Article 50 (we can debate that another time). Yet it is somewhat troubling to
hear a politician who was criticised for being part of the metropolitan elite
arguing against the “will of the people.” I am reluctantly forced to concede that
although his message is the right one, Blair is not the right man to deliver it
and as a consequence it will not be heard.
Looking through the speech, there is nothing there that I
have not pointed out over the past four years. But it is worthwhile quoting
Blair who noted, “What was unfortunately
only dim in our sight before the referendum is now in plain sight. The road
we’re going down is not simply Hard Brexit. It is Brexit At Any Cost … How
hideously, in this debate, is the mantle of patriotism abused … nine months ago
both she [the PM] and the Chancellor, were telling us that leaving would be bad
for the country, its economy, its security and its place in the world. Today it is apparently a ‘once in a
generation opportunity’ for greatness. Seven months ago, after the referendum
result, the Chancellor was telling us that leaving the Single Market would be –
and I quote – ‘catastrophic’. Now it appears we will leave the Single Market
and the Customs Union and he is very optimistic.”
He went on to point out that “This jumble of contradictions shows that the PM and the Government are
not masters of this situation. They’re not driving this bus. They’re being
driven … We will trigger Article 50 not
because we now know our destination, but because the politics of not doing so,
would alienate those driving the bus. Many of the main themes of the Brexit
campaign barely survived the first weekend after the vote. Remember the £350m a
week extra for the NHS?”
On the substantive issue of immigration, Blair pointed out “of the EU immigrants, the PM has recently
admitted we would want to keep the majority, including those with a confirmed
job offer and students. This leaves around 80,000 who come looking for work
without a job. Of these 80,000, a third comes to London, mostly ending up
working in the food processing and hospitality sectors. It is highly unlikely
that they’re ‘taking’ the jobs of British born people in other parts of the
country.”
Predictably, Blair’s comments were met with opprobrium from large
sections of the press and from pro-Brexit MPs, with the lovable Iain Duncan
Smith telling Sky News that "He
seems to have forgotten what democracy is about. Democracy is about asking people a question and then acting on it.”
Personally, I always thought it was about rational debate and respecting the
fact that other people are allowed to hold different opinions, whilst being
free to change one’s mind. But the frothing-at-the-mouth brigade doesn’t do
rationality. Clearly, I am a fake news dupe!
The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung also called it right in
an article published yesterday: “In Great
Britain, an era is coming to an end: 38 years characterised by a firm belief in
liberalism and an open market economy, which began on 4 May 1979 when Margaret
Thatcher moved into Downing Street ended – as it is becoming ever more clear – on
23 June 2016.” The article went on to say that although Theresa May is less
alarming than Donald Trump, her economic programme is equally contradictory. “Her free-market rhetoric sounds hollow. It is not
convincing when she praises economic openness and globalization as Britain's
future and at the same time laments the openness of the British labour market.”
Two days before the House of Lords is due to reconvene to
debate the Article 50 bill that was supported in parliament by an opposition whose
MPs are more concerned about keeping their seats than debating the national
interest, we should not pin our hopes on major changes. The most tragic thing
about the whole affair is that EU membership is being used as the scapegoat for
decades of policy failures by governments of all hues, in much the same way as
traditional American values of decency and tolerance have been subverted by rage
against the status quo. It is nothing short of a revolution.
But revolutions succeed or fail depending on the extent to
which a coalition of interest groups is able to come together “including elite
groups and the middle class[1].”
For example, the Iranian revolution of 1979 succeeded in overthrowing the government
but set the country’s progress back years as the educated middle class left in
droves. In the UK debate, large swathes of the popular press are in favour of
Brexit, which is an important constituent. But their support can be fickle. Business generally does not support it, and the much-despised “elite” is not onside, so there is no sense of a broad
coalition forming in the UK. It is
going to be a bumpy ride, and much as Iain Duncan Smith, Nigel Farage et al
might wish for it, people are not simply going to shut up and accept the
result.
No comments:
Post a Comment