Boiled frogs and QE

For a long time central bankers told us that quantitative easing was the best thing since sliced bread. It would, so the conventional wisdom went, allow for a potentially limitless expansion of the central bank balance sheet which would flood the economy with liquidity and, at some point, eventually result in a recovery in demand.

Those who have been reading my material over the years will know that I have never been fully convinced of the merits of QE. Back in 2009, I pointed out that using QE to stimulate domestic recovery would be hampered by the weakness of the banking sector. I also suggested that “it is unclear whether a policy which acts to improve credit supply will help to stimulate activity when demand for credit remains limited.” In response to such criticisms, the BoE later held an impromptu session to explain to financial sector economists that the main channel through which QE worked was via the wealth effect. In this way, BoE purchases would drive down yields and force bond holders to switch into other assets. This in turn would boost household wealth and help support an economic upturn. In fairness, the BoE was correct in its assessment that investors would be forced to switch into higher yielding assets – the problem was (and is) that it is financial investors who have benefited rather than households.

It is this kind of thinking which has prompted much of the recent criticism of central bank policy, particularly by politicians. But as BoE Governor Carney noted yesterday in parliamentary testimony “an excessive focus on monetary policy in many respects is a massive blame deflection exercise.” He is certainly right on that, as those of us who believe there is an expanded role for fiscal policy in the current conjuncture would attest. However, the BoE should not be allowed to get off scot-free. Some five years ago I recall having a conversation with one BoE official who, in response to my question of why QE should be expanded given that its marginal impact had cleared waned, replied in effect that “more QE does no harm, so it cannot hurt to do too much rather than too little.”

Being charitable, I guess that no policymakers thought that monetary policy would have to remain in post-crisis expansionary mode as long as it subsequently has done. And it probably seemed reasonable to central bankers in 2011 that a further dose of bond purchases would probably not do much harm. After all, there were not that many suggestions at the time that QE was overly harmful. However, I did point out as long ago as 2009 that “the impact of quantitative easing in lowering bond yields will pose real problems for pension funds.” We might have been able to wear that for a year or two, but few if any would have expected that both the BoE and ECB would still be buying assets in 2016 which in part suggests that it is the duration of the monetary easing phase, rather than the easing per se, which is the problem. Indeed, as Carney’s quote suggests, it is the government’s failure to step in to provide additional policy support which has thrown the onus onto central banks.

One of the great ironies of QE is that rather than making life easier for the banking system by providing it with a huge liquidity injection, things have got a lot tougher. Action to cut short rates to zero, or into negative territory, has increased the cost to banks of holding excess reserves whilst the QE policy has flattened the yield curve, which in turn has reduced the spread which banks need in order to make money. In many ways, the side effects of QE are akin to the frog-boiling syndrome. If you put a frog in a pan of boiling water it will immediately jump out, but if you put it in a pan of cold water and gradually turn up the heat, it will not realise that it is being boiled alive. Banks in particular are now waking up to the prospect of being boiled alive, and the ECB may even turn up the heat still further if it announces an extension of its QE programme in December.

Some respite may be afforded by the recent Trump-induced rise in bond yields, which if sustained could alleviate some of the margin pressure. But we are all now increasingly alert to the dangers of relying on more QE. This is not to say that it should necessarily be reversed but without more thought to the mix between monetary and fiscal policy, electorates in other countries might be tempted to follow the example set by the US and UK, and jump right out of the pan.