It is ironic that the legal challenge to the government's handling of the Article 50 process was brought about by one domestic resident, one Spanish hairdresser* and a British expat, only one of whom would have had the unambiguous right to vote in the referendum. Unsurprisingly, the High Court ruling that the UK parliament be given a say before Article 50 is triggered has evoked strong reactions across the political spectrum. The Leavers see it as an attack on the democratic process, despite the fact that the referendum result was advisory and not legally binding, and that whilst the electorate may have voted for Brexit they did not vote on the terms on which the divorce should take place.
Contrary to the hopes of some fervent Remainers, it is unlikely that parliament will try to prevent Brexit from occurring. For one thing, this would be perceived as highly undemocratic and would lay government open to the change of ignoring the will of the electorate. This in turn would lay it open to additional legal challenges, which would slow the process of working towards EU exit and threaten the constructive working relationship between the executive, legislative and judicial arms of government. And before we all get too carried away, let us not forget that today's ruling has yet to be ratified by the Supreme Court to which the government has appealed. For all these reasons, the predictable howls of outrage from the usual suspects in the media will likely prove misplaced.
Rather than seeing the process as an attack on democracy, I prefer to see it as introducing a firebreak which will give the government more time to think about the nature of the divorce which it wants from the EU. A commitment to trigger Article 50 by end-March does not allow the government sufficient time to conduct the requisite preparatory work on issues such as the future of financial services. Moreover, it potentially gives the UK enough time to postpone the trigger point until after the French and German elections, which will allow them to become more engaged in the process rather than focusing their energy on domestic political issues.
The spirit of the challenge to the government was based on the notion that if Brexit has to take place, it should at least be on terms which are favourable to the British people. Nothing I have heard so far gives me much confidence that ministers such as David Davis and Liam Fox are capable of making such a decision. Indeed, their views appear to be based on ideological, rather than economic, considerations. It has crossed my mind in recent weeks that perhaps this is the outcome that Theresa May wanted all along. It has long been suggested in legal circles that the government's case was based on flimsy evidence and that its team was not particularly high powered in the field of constitutional law.
That might be a Machiavellian view. But surely the PM is smart enough to realise that if the UK goes "naked into the debating chamber" without a coherent plan of what it wants, and with negotiating partners who are distracted by other issues, the outcome is likely to prove less than optimal from the UK's standpoint. Winding up other EU partners is not the way to get the deal which Davis, Fox et al think they can deliver. Postponing the Article 50 process might allow some of the heat which has built up in recent weeks to dissipate. Trade negotiations are best conducted in a cool and rational manner. Maybe we all need a little space to allow us to get to that point.
* Update 13 November: Confusion exists as to the exact nationality of the hairdresser I identified as being Spanish. In many instances, they have been identified as Brazilian but other reputable sources have claimed they are Spanish, including the FT (here) and the BBC (here).
No comments:
Post a Comment