Monday, 4 July 2016

The economic costs of Nigel Farage

What is it with the current generation of political (so called) leaders? Following last week's abrogation by Boris Johnson of his responsibilities, UKIP leader Nigel Farage has today followed him into the political wilderness. The mass resignation of Brexiters smacks of a political movement that having achieved its aim of winning the referendum, has no idea of what it wants to do next. It is rather like watching a bunch of children who, having screamed at the top of their lungs to get what they want, suddenly decide they are no longer interested. Whilst I have no truck with the policies of Farage, surely he owes it to the Brexit camp to figure out how his plans should be implemented?

It seems not. For an alarmingly large number of Brexiters, the referendum itself was the prize. Like the bunch of screaming kids, they now have to leave it to the adults to clear up the mess they created. 

One of those who must wade into the mess is BoE governor Mark Carney who tomorrow will present the biannual Financial Stability Report. This will be the first official report on the health of UK banks since the referendum. Although we can expect the Bank to say that the measures it has put in place have held up well so far, there are significant downside risks. Today's news that Standard Life has suspended trading in its property fund is perhaps the first indication that investors are beginning to get cold feet regarding their UK investment strategy.

The UK economy is going to need all the help it can get in the weeks ahead. If the BoE does not cut rates next week, it will almost certainly do so in August. Just when you thought they could not fall below their already record lows, the referendum result has wrong-footed us all. And the bad news is that this puts further downward pressure on the investments which form the backbone of our pension income. One of these days Nigel, Boris et al might like to explain to those whose pension income they have effectively robbed, exactly what the economic benefits of Brexit are. I am struggling to figure it out.

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