Euro countdown

In less than two weeks the fate of the UK in Europe will be decided. The referendum campaign has been an unedifying spectacle, characterised by the distortion of the facts by the Brexiteers on one side and the relentless negativity of the Remainers on the other. In a sense, the latter has been dictated by the former. The idea advanced by the Leave camp that the UK will somehow find its way to economic nirvana by leaving the EU is not just a distortion of the truth, it is a torturing of the facts until they say anything you want them to. Naturally the Remainers have been forced to counter these untruths by pointing out the reality of their opponents views. And yes, it comes across as negative. And perhaps some of the arguments are a bit overdone in the opposite direction. But one thing is clear: The Remainers position has not been helped by their failure to make a positive case for the EU.

So what might that positive case be? Let's try the obvious tack that by tying economies together in the world's richest trading bloc, you make everyone better off. Those are the gains from trade that all economists are taught about early on. Another simple idea that there is strength in numbers. Britain gets a far bigger hearing on the world stage thanks to its EU membership than it ever would if it were acting alone. The US and Chinese won't be falling over themselves to offer us a trade deal in the event of Brexit. If they offer us anything at all, it will be a series of demands on their terms which will not be designed with British interests in mind. It may not be what BoJo and his cronies want to tell the British electorate but it's a damn sight closer to the truth than most of their economic ramblings.

The referendum will, of course, be won and lost on the issue of immigration. It is hard to refute the Brexit claim that so long as we are a member of the EU we can control our own borders. But it is interesting to note that over the past decade around 80% of net immigration into the UK has come from outside the EU. Even now, more than half does. You can argue about whether this is a good or a bad thing, I will leave that to you. But it suggests that leaving the EU will not serve to reduce immigration levels to the "tens of thousands" promised by David Cameron in 2010. Moreover, the largest proportion  of non-EU immigrants come here to study. To the extent that they are charged higher fees than domestic students, they help to subsidise the education of British students.

There are no easy answers to any of the questions raised by the referendum. But there is truth and there are lies. And our politicians owe it to the electorate to be more honest about the pros and cons of the EU than the antics we have seen so far, which are often more worthy of the playground than the debating chamber.