Aftermyth

There is no real sense that the Brexit dust is beginning to settle. As I warned all along, there never was a Plan B and that if Johnson, Farage et al were to carry the day, they would have to think clearly about what they wanted to do with their new found power. And they haven’t. We have been treated to the spectacle of Johnson backsliding on some of their initial promises and Farage grandstanding from the Brussels bully pulpit.  Meanwhile, the EU leaders try to close ranks and carry on as before and this is where things might get dangerous. The Leavers might have been able to carry off their shtick at home, but it will be whole different set of negotiations to get the EU to cut any sort of deal without triggering Article 50 and I rather think the Brexiters are out of their depth.

Short of actually remaining within the EU there is no alternative deal which offers anything like the same advantages as the one we have now. The so-called Norwegian solution offers most of the costs and all of the benefits bar one – the ability to set the rules of the game, which is by far the most important of the lot. The Swiss option, which involves making a series of bilateral agreements with the EU on a range of subjects, is cheaper (around 40% of current UK levels on a per capita basis) but less efficient, because each subject area has to be dealt with separately, and in any case excludes financial services. Perhaps the UK could do a deal in this area but the costs would likely rise correspondingly. In any case, both of these options would require the UK to keep the borders open to an extent which many voters thought they were voting against. Whilst many people argue that the Norwegian option is economically the best, it would be the height of stupidity to take that deal. Why would any government accept not being to influence the rules and still pay costs which are 90% of current levels? It just defies logic. 

As for what the Leavers are trying to sell at home, they are apparently convinced that they can trade with the EU as before and control borders. But it is not in the gift of any British government to make that promise. The single market belongs to those who remain in the EU and they will determine who trades in it and on what terms.

So what happens now? The EU seems convinced that Britain should do what it promised and trigger Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union. In other words, start a process of negotiation with the EU on the terms of the post-membership trading arrangements. Naturally, the British don’t like this prospect because they don’t know what the outcome will be and are holding fire. Legally the British have to make the first move. And let’s not forget that since the referendum was not binding on the UK government in the first place, it is rather difficult to envisage the EU being able to railroad the UK into triggering what is an unstoppable process. One you pull the trigger, this baby is well and truly armed.

So what to do? From my perspective the best option would be to not start the exit countdown clock. It may be a live hand grenade but the pin is still in, so put it in the cupboard and forget about it. That, however, is not what the electorate think they voted for. But they will soon realise that the longer the government leaves it, the more they have been taken for a ride. There has been speculation that a new election should be called, which would act as a proxy second referendum. We’ll skip the details but suffice to say it opens up a whole new can of worms, notably a surge in support for fringe parties such as UKIP when the electorate realises that the established parties don’t really want to leave the EU after all. 

Undoubtedly, the other EU countries want to make Britain squirm. It is after all, only natural that after a bitter row during which one threatens to storm out that the other one says “off you go then.” As an exercise in bluff calling, it never fails. But if the Brits don’t really want to go, then you can be pretty sure that the rest of the EU does not want the UK to go either. 

So how about this for a plan: Sack Jean-Claude Juncker and reset relationships. After all, he is a hard liner whose views do not seem to chime with those of Angela Merkel. He is apparently not well liked in parts of central and eastern Europe and he and Cameron famously do not see eye to eye. Thus, for the greater good of the EU, the big nations conspire to get rid of him (don’t forget that the whole Commission was forced to resign in 1999). They find a more emollient candidate who offers Britain most of what it wants; the Brits sell the deal at home that it was Juncker’s fault all along and Article 50 is quietly shelved. Everyone saves a bit of face, the EU is preserved and we move on.

As Peter Cook put it in the famous Beyond the Fringe sketch, The Aftermyth of War:

“I want you to lay down your life, Perkins. We need a futile gesture at this stage. It will raise the whole tone of the war. Get up in a crate, Perkins, pop over to Bremen, take a shufti, don't come back. Goodbye, Perkins. God, I wish I was going too.” 

Jonathan Miller: “Goodbye, sir — or is it — au revoir?” 

Cook: “No Perkins.” 

Sometimes sacrifices are necessary for the greater good, and this may be one of those times.