EU debate: Depressingly familiar

The EU referendum campaign rolls inexorably on but we are none the wiser after the big TV debate last night which was very much a classic case of much heat but little light. Indeed, this summed up the whole campaign. Claim and counter claim, met with spin and counter spin. As an economist, I am totally unpersuaded of the case made by the Leavers. They appear to be adopting a naive belief that in the event we leave, our erstwhile EU partners will be only too willing to do a deal with us. It would be foolish in the extreme to assume this, since one of the motivating factors in their dealings with the UK will be to persuade other countries not to go down the same route and will be in no mood to offer any concessions. 

When it comes to immigration, the Leavers have been somewhat disingenuous. It is true that the number of net immigrants into the UK hit record levels last year but less than half of them were from the EU. If we have an immigration problem it is that the UK, in common with other EU countries, has failed to control its borders with countries outside the region. The bigger irony is that a large proportion of non-EU immigrants come to the UK to study. To the extent that these students pay much higher tuition fees than EU students, they contribute significantly to the finances of the higher education sector at a time when the government has been cutting its own university funding. As an aside, I am struck by the irony that one of the key protagonists in the Leave campaign is Gisela Stuart MP who is herself German-born. I have nothing against Ms Stuart, who is a perfectly competent MP, but in effect she is seeking to deny those from a similar background the same opportunities which were granted to her. 

Ultimately the EU referendum has proven to be a debate in which both sides are talking at cross purposes. The Remainers argue that the economic costs are too high (they're right) whilst the Brexiters argue that this is about regaining sovereignty (they're wrong). We live in a globalised world in which countries such as China are awakening giants. I believe we are indeed better together with our European partners, with Britain's voice more likely to be heard if we act in concert with our neighbours. 

Last week's murder of MP Jo Cox was a symbol of the divisions in British society - divisions which have been exacerbated by the ferocity of this debate. Whatever happens tomorrow, the divisions which have been opened up will be slow to heal. The referendum is not just about Europe: It is the chance for the British electorate to vent its spleen along the same lines that Donald Trump has been elevated to become the Republicans' candidate for the US presidency. If we could hold up a mirror to our society, we might not like what we see. I, for one, certainly do not.