The big day dawns

We are less than a day away from the triggering of the Article 50 process which will signal the UK government’s determination to leave the EU. It is the equivalent of serving the divorce papers, and like most divorces it is unlikely to run smoothly. It was thus rather depressing to watch the BBC’s pre-Article 50 debate (here for those in the UK, and those outside the UK may have to be content with this). Having watched with increasing despondency the debates in the run up to the June referendum, I took no comfort from the fact that the country is still as divided on the issue as it was nine months ago and continue to believe that the government’s public position on its negotiating stance is naïve.

After the UK government communicates its desire to leave the EU, everything changes. The UK no longer has any control over how the negotiations will proceed and the ball will be very much in the court of its (soon-to-be erstwhile) EU partners. Although Theresa May has set out her 12 key negotiating points, I maintain that they are little more than a wish list. And if the key issue at the heart of the Brexit campaign was immigration, the UK government does not appear to have developed a clear strategy on how to proceed from here. Brexit minister David Davis yesterday confirmed that the government will not seek to cap the number of EU migrants working in the UK after Brexit, but expects that the government will eventually meet its target of cutting net migration to the “tens of thousands.” Short of redefining the migration statistics to exclude students, it most certainly will not be able to do so. I won’t bore you with the economic arguments about immigration again – suffice to say many people have it wrong about the balance of costs and benefits.

There are those who argue that the weakness of the EU is a good opportunity for PM May to press hard for a deal which will benefit the UK. Allister Heath in the Telegraph argues that “the rise of populism on the continent, the strength of Britain's economy and Europe's fear of terrorism all make a good deal for the UK more likely.” I’m not sure I agree that the EU is as weak as he makes out. The Dutch election earlier this month showed that Geert Wilders’ brand of populism was decisively rejected and latest polls put Emmanuel Macron ahead in the French election, suggesting that he will breeze the second round. The EU is not, in Heath’s words, “on the verge of the abyss.” It is weakened, for sure. But Brexit may even act as a catalyst to force it to rethink its strategy.

For those Brexit supporters who claim that it is not curbing immigration which is the real prize but the opportunity to strike new trade deals, Gideon Rachman’s recent column in the FT nicely skewers some of that thinking. Rachman argues that the UK establishment suffers from collective amnesia in which the national story is centred around the war against the Nazis rather than focusing on Britain’s imperial past. In Rachman’s words “Most British people, including leading politicians, are profoundly ignorant of the country’s imperial history. This imperial amnesia … means that leading Brexiters and advocates of “Global Britain” … speak warmly of returning to Britain’s historical vocation as a “great trading nation”, when it was actually a great imperial nation. That important distinction leads to overconfidence about the ease of re-creating a global trading destiny, in a world in which Britannia no longer rules the waves.”

In the first Brexit presentation I made, back in 2013, when I shared a platform with former Europe Minister Denis MacShane (before his conviction for expenses fraud), I recall making a similar point. Those who believe that the UK will be able to rely on our Commonwealth partners, claiming special historical ties, clearly do not see the imperial position through Indian (or Pakistani or Kenyan etc) eyes. The former British colonies have emerged from the shadow of their imperial past and have no desire to return to it. Indeed, Theresa May’s efforts to conduct a trade deal could be threatened by her refusal to reform visa restrictions for Indian citizens (here). 

For the 48.1% of us who voted in favour of Remain in June, the decision to trigger Article 50 will signal another step on the path away from the common Europe of which we hoped to remain part. I would like to think that whatever deal is struck, it will not inflict too much pain on the UK. But much will depend on the magnanimity of the EU, for what I have heard so far gives me little confidence in the UK’s negotiating strategy. When our own prime minster reckons “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain” you really have to wonder what we are letting ourselves in for.

What drives politicians?

Human actions can broadly be understood in the context of three forces which act to offset each other in order to produce balanced outcomes. On the one hand, we are motivated by self-interest which is the driving force propelling individuals forward and helps societies to develop. But this is constrained by the loyalty to the tribe to which we belong, and by the responsibility to the wider society. So it is with politicians in a democratic society: Self-interest is tempered both by party loyalty and a responsibility to represent the people which put them in office.

The actions of someone like President Trump are a bit harder to fathom, particularly since he appears to owe no fealty to the Republican Party. I would venture to suggest, however, that he was motivated to run for the presidency out of ambition but his actions will be constrained by what the American people – or more properly, Congress – allow him to get away with. Trump’s attempt to repeal Obamacare should be seen as a policy of self-interest, designed to ensure that he is seen to be fulfilling his election promises. Equally, Congressional action to block this attempt should be celebrated as an example of how this self-interest can be held in check. (For anyone interested in a more detailed analysis of the difficulties the Trump Administration will face in trying to push through its legislative programme, this article from the New York Times is well worth a read).

On this side of the Atlantic the British political scene offers a number of fascinating insights into the motivations of politicians. The news over the weekend that UKIP’s only sitting MP is to leave the party is a case in point. Douglas Carswell is a former Conservative MP, and a well-known Eurosceptic, who defected to UKIP in 2014. Carswell’s reasons for leaving UKIP are unclear. He obviously did not see eye-to-eye with former leader Nigel Farage (who has never managed to be elected as an MP) but Carswell posted on his blog that “I switched to UKIP because I desperately wanted us to leave the EU. Now we can be certain that that is going to happen, I have decided that I will be leaving UKIP.” A cynic might say that a cause he believed in so strongly has been achieved that, for the second time in three years, he has decided to leave a party which no longer suits his purpose. Or, as the Huffington Post put it,  “He’s just another hypocritical politician. Just another MP motivated by self-interest, who picks and chooses his principles to match whatever he has already decided to do.” 

There again, the same could be said of Winston Churchill who was elected as a Conservative MP in 1900, before defecting to the Liberal Party in 1904 only to rejoin the Conservatives in the 1920s. As the great man put it, “anyone can rat, but it takes a certain ingenuity to re-rat.” With political tribal loyalty these days much stronger than in Churchill’s day, Carswell may not be welcomed back quite so warmly if he were to rejoin his former Conservative colleagues, as has long been rumoured. But whilst one can question Carswell’s personal motivation, he was tapping into a groundswell of anger felt by a large part of the electorate. Like Trump, he was prepared to put other factors ahead of party loyalty and perhaps Carswell really believed that he was acting in the interests of a wider society.

Theresa May, on the other hand, appears to have put the party above all else. She did vote “remain” in the EU referendum (albeit reluctantly, apparently) but has clearly decided that it is more important to keep the party together than allow her personal view on Brexit to determine her course of action. As a result, we appear set for the hard Brexit that many members of the party have long called for. As for her opposite number in parliament, it is hard to know where Jeremy Corbyn stands. It seems that he is not acting in the interests of his party, after his parliamentary colleagues virtually disowned him last year (although he can at least claim that the party’s rank-and-file membership backs him – for now). Most of the polling evidence suggests he is unelectable and as a result he would do his party a favour by stepping aside for someone who is. Arguably, Corbyn is putting personal ambition and his apparently genuine belief in some of the causes he espouses, ahead of party loyalty.

In a world where many of us express irritation at the actions of politicians, it is important to be aware of the forces which drive them. On the one hand, doing so might help to narrow the chasm which has emerged between politicians and the electorate, which is an important factor driving the populist movement and is driving us towards a resurgence of economic nationalism. In addition, it may help counter the more extreme positions adopted by some of the populists. The prejudice of the Brexiteers, for example, could have been fought far more effectively if their opponents had tried to engage with the electorate’s fears rather than dismiss them. Sun Tzu’s The Art of War recommends that we know our enemy.  What was true in the 5th century BC still holds today: Good ideas never die – they just get recycled.

Fund the police

The terrible attack on the UK parliament last week which claimed the lives of four innocent people would have been a lot worse were it not for the actions of the security and other emergency services. As it was, one police officer was killed in the line of duty and politicians from all sides were quick to praise the work of the police on the front line in maintaining law and order. But we should not allow these warm words to deflect us from the fact that the police service, like many other publicly funded bodies, has had its funding slashed over the past seven years.

The Mayor of London warned in January (here) that  “it would become increasingly difficult to keep Londoners safe from growing security threats if the Government continues to underfund the Met, or makes further cuts in funding” and this is a message which is being heard up and down the country. A report last year from the impartial House of Commons Library (here) noted that between fiscal 2010-11 and 2015-16, the central government grant to police was cut by 22% in real terms. Although the police in England are able to rely on some local government funding, the report notes that two-thirds of its revenue derives from central government. The total number of full-time police officers in England and Wales has fallen by 11.8% since 2010 compared with a planned decline of 11.2% and total staff numbers are down by 15.6% versus a planned 12.7%. In fairness, the report also notes that most police forces have coped well with the additional austerity. But this does not disguise the fact that there are limits as to how much further budgets can be cut.

Another report issued by the HoCL around the same time (here) reported that since 2010-11, funding for the fire and rescue services has been slashed by between 26% and 39%.  Taken together with the cuts to police funding, it is clear that these are not insignificant cuts and they underline the belief of a growing number of people that we have gone way beyond the point of trimming fat from the public sector and we are now cutting into the bone and muscle. A recent article in The Economist  – not exactly a supporter of big government – made the point that the public sector is under increasing strain and that it may be about to break under the load. Citizens Advice – a voluntary organisation that provides help and support to those who are struggling to get what they need from the state – has seen a sharp rise in demand for its services. The government’s decision to cut back on its Legal Aid budget has left many people with no recourse to legal representation, with CA taking up the slack, and changes to the benefits system have resulted in many people falling through the cracks.

I have highlighted before the excellent report by the Institute for Government which argues very strongly that recent additional cuts in government spending are beginning to erode the fabric of public services. The evidence-based analysis makes the point that although there has been a big rise in real spending on hospitals since 2010, admissions rose at an even faster pace. Or take the case of prisons, where the prison population has remained unchanged since 2010 but the number of officers has fallen by almost 25% with the result that assaults on staff have risen by 70%.

None of this is news. Nor is it an ideological point about how we have to spend more money on public services. However, the evidence before our eyes is mounting to suggest that public services are struggling to cope and they are increasingly unable to offer the level of service which the public demands of them. With the best will in the world, a police officer cannot be in two places at once.  If we continue to starve our public services of resources, this will continue to eat away at morale and they may reach a tipping point beyond which it is very difficult to recover. Indeed, taxpayers as a group are not finding that the exchequer is taking any less tax yet they are getting far less in return.

I am reminded of the story that was frequently told of British Rail – the old and (at the time) unloved nationalised body responsible for running Britain’s railways – about how in the 1970s it was one of the world’s most cost-effective railways in terms of spending per passenger mile (even today, UK railways still receive far less public money per passenger mile than other major European networks – see chart). But it was criticised for poor service; lack of staff morale; the frequency with which workers went on strike; the quality of the food served and the general state of the trains. It did, however, get people from A to B, even if it was a utilitarian service, before it was abolished in the 1990s when the railways were privatised.

Today, people look back to the halcyon days of an integrated railway network which conducted world class research and built its own rolling stock, providing jobs for many thousands. This demonstrates that if governments do not put money into public services, the quality of service deteriorates and public trust is eroded, even if in accounting terms it offers good value for money. But when you replace it with something else, it is often not perceived to be as good. As Joni Mitchell put it, “You don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone.”

The games people play

Brexit is often described as an economic game-changer, whilst Prime Minister Theresa May has accused the Scottish First Minister of playing a game with her call for a second Scottish independence referendum. But politics is a form of game and Brexit certainly warrants examination in a game theoretic context, which can be described as “the study of mathematical models of conflict and cooperation between intelligent rational decision-makers.” Leaving aside the question of the rationality of the Brexit decision, we can perhaps use it to gain some additional insight on what the optimal (or least sub-optimal) outcomes are likely to be, not only for the UK but also for the rest of Europe.

Mathematical games can be split into two broad categories: cooperative and non-cooperative. Whatever the EU may be, it is a consensus based institution in which decisions are traditionally arrived at in a cooperative manner (although the Greeks may not see it in this way). In principle, the EU is a cooperative environment in which players are constrained to act according to the legal rules. Those who breach the rules are subject to sanctions. To take the example of environmental protection, there were 3464 infringements of EU law over the period 2007 to 2015, of which the UK accounted for 179, or 5%. Italy was the biggest offender accounting for 9% of all infringements followed by Spain (8.6%) and Greece (7%). Without making any judgement on individual nations’ degree of compliance with the law, the rules are known and the EC publishes data to name and shame the transgressors who are expected to comply with sanctions.

Similar rules apply to trade. But not everyone thinks the EU applies the rules consistently. Alan Halsall owns a company (Silver Cross) which makes prams, and in 2015 the French government banned his company from selling its products in France on safety grounds despite being cleared for sale elsewhere across the EU. Not surprisingly, Mr Halsall argued strongly in favour of Brexit. But the problem is not the EU rules: it is that the French government applies higher safety standards than other countries. In fact, Mr Halsall had a case for applying to the European Commission to appeal this decision although he chose not to do so, arguing that he will benefit more from applying his energies to markets where he is able to generate sales.

But if he thinks the current rules are stacked against him, Brexit will change the rules of the game completely. The process of renegotiating trade deals with the rest of the EU implies entering into a non-cooperative bargaining “game” where the EU has no incentive to cooperate with the UK, primarily because it wishes to avoid giving support to the idea that leaving the EU is an easy option. Although the ultimate outcome is likely to result in a cooperative situation in which a new set of rules apply, the process of getting there will be non-cooperative. And even if we do reach a cooperative solution, the end result is likely to produce an outcome which is worse than the position we started from. In game theoretic terms, the outcome will be inefficient – at least for the UK.

Those of you who have seen the film A Beautiful Mind will be aware of the work of John Nash, who offered significant insights into the mathematics of bargaining problems. His key insight was that equilibrium is reached when no player can unilaterally change their strategy and get a better result, given that they know the strategy of the other player(s).   In other words two parties should cooperate when non-cooperation leads to results where at least one side is worse off (so-called Pareto inefficient outcomes). Clearly, the EU is not going to allow the UK to have free access to the single market: such a strategy will weaken the EU because it implies there is no cost to exit, which will endanger the EU’s long-term existence. But the UK cannot accept access to the single market whilst continuing to pay into the EU budget and accept ongoing free movement of labour (the Norwegian solution), because this gives the UK the same system as before Brexit but without any control over the legislative process.

The problem the EU faces is to trade off punishing the UK against the harm that non-cooperation inflicts upon itself. Likewise, the UK must trade off the best deal against the political costs of giving away too many concessions. Abstracting from deals regarding the exit costs, one possible Nash equilibrium is for the EU to offer the UK continued access to the single market for an annual fee which is lower than the UK's current net EU contributions but which offers no say over drafting legislation. The UK should accept this because although it is a worse deal than the current arrangements, it is economically less damaging than relying on WTO tariffs and preserves market access for exporters on both sides of the table.

One of the best known forms of game is the zero sum option. Many Brexit supporters appear to believe they are operating in a positive-sum game: if the UK leaves the EU, any disadvantages from leaving will be more than offset by the gains. There is no evidence to support this sunny optimism. Indeed any action which harms UK trade with the rest of the EU, such as the imposition of trade tariffs, will result in a negative sum outcome. 

Looking at this in a wider perspective, it is evident from recent polling evidence that the degree of dissatisfaction with the EU is rising across the whole continent. We can thus perhaps think of the decision of whether to leave as a sequential game, in which the action of one country influences the decisions of others. It is yet possible that the UK’s decision to be the first mover in this game will trigger other countries to go down the same path. But it is not in the UK’s interest to be the first mover because it will face all the adverse consequences as a result. Far better in this case to allow others to make the first move – this may be a game where there is no first mover advantage.

Contrary to what politicians tell us, Brexit really is a game – admittedly one with high stakes. However, a central assumption in many variants of game theory is that the players are rational. In other words, they always choose an action which gives their most preferred outcome, given what they expect their opponents to do. I have a pretty fair idea how the European Commission is likely to act: Based on recent rhetoric I am less certain of the rationality of the British position.

When politics and economics collide

In recent months, I have spent more time than I would have liked on political issues which appear only to have a tangential connection with the economic issues I originally wanted to write about. There is, of course, a good reason for this. The big economic issues of the moment are being driven more by politics than the underlying economics – indeed, we would not have seen a vote for Brexit otherwise. The causality also runs in the opposite direction, of course, with many political decisions influenced by the underlying economics, notably fiscal policy. In any case, economics does not exist in a vacuum: Economic decisions are taken against the backdrop of the prevailing institutional circumstances.

But there is an increasing divergence between the way economists and politicians view the world. We saw that during the Brexit and Trump election campaigns. In a very thoughtful piece, Tim Harford (here) outlines the reasons why post-truth currently has the upper hand. In short, a simple lie is easier to distil than a complicated truth. Moreover, facts are often boring – this is why “newspapers” such as The Sport are able to get away with ludicrous stories like ‘World War II bomber found on the moon.’  It’s clearly nonsense, and 99% of readers know it, but it is enjoyable nonsense rather than the prosaic realities which make up our everyday lives. Finally, Harford points out that the truth can feel threatening, and threatening people tends to backfire: remember Project Fear?

Given where we are today, it is easier to sell a story that if we follow a simple course of action we will find a way back to the path of economic righteousness, rather than tell one of two truths: (i) that the pre-2008 model is not going to be resurrected anytime soon and (ii) it will take a lot of time, effort and sacrifice to get our economies back on an even keel. Indeed, the failure of governments to level with the electorate from around 2012 onwards, and the fact that they have tried to use the old repair kit to fix a system which is broken beyond repair, has played into the hands of the populists. After all, their view is that if the status quo is not producing the desired results it is time to overthrow it.

Yet when we think about it rationally, it may seem strange that people in the western world are quite as angry as they seem to be. After all, most of us enjoy a decent standard of living, even if it is not improving at the rate that it once was; we are reasonably well off, comfortable and secure. Instead we worry about immigration, terrorism and the future of our society at a time of unprecedented change. Ultimately, perhaps what we are worried about is the effect of globalisation, and we are assailed on a regular basis about how people will be better off if the barriers go up. That is, after all, how Trump won the US election. Raising the barriers is also the way that the current Scottish government intends to push for its objective of independence, by highlighting the differences between Scotland and England rather than admitting there is more that unites than divides them. Marine Le Pen is employing exactly these tactics in a bid to win the French presidency, though as this week’s Dutch election showed, playing the insider-outsider card is not a guaranteed vote winner.

However, politicians do themselves no favours with some of their own actions (and I am not going to even go near the subject of Jeremy Corbyn’s performance, which is worthy of a post of its own). Francois Fillon is battling to preserve his campaign to be the next French president following revelations that he accepted state aid to fund his wife’s employment as a political assistant, despite no evidence that she has actually done any work. Not so very long ago, such a revelation would have ended his political career but he is still on the ballot paper.

In another demonstration of his tin ear for public opinion, it was announced on Friday that former UK Chancellor George Osborne is to become editor of the London Evening Standard, despite the fact that (i) he is still a sitting MP (so no conflict of interest there); (ii) he has no journalistic experience – the closest he got was an interview with The Economist in 1997 (he didn’t get the job) and (iii) he already earns £650k per year from the hedge fund BlackRock by working just four days a month. This from a Chancellor who imposed the most draconian public sector squeeze since the wielding of the Geddes Axe in the 1920s.

Nothing would please me more than getting back to some good old fashioned economics (and I will). But so long as politicians fail to live up to the economic standards which they demand of others, and so long as their actions continue to conflict with the way in which economists think about many of today’s big issues, politics will always provide a lot of source material for economists. But if you think that I am too harsh on politicians’ actions, I would recommend you take a look at the blog at Another Angry Voice and you will realise what a model of restraint I am.

The popularity contest

I had the pleasure today of participating in a roundtable discussion on the subject of (yes, you guessed it) Brexit. In the course of chatting with some of the attendees, I happened across a senior and very well-connected businessman who told me that in the past he had dealings with Theresa May and her department in her capacity as Home Secretary. What was shocking was the story he told of how he had tried to make certain policy suggestions in order to improve business operations, only to be told to get them in the Daily Mail first and then government would listen (I am not making this up).

His reaction was the same as mine: How on earth can a government whose job it is to manage the country in the interests of its people possibly think that policy can best be served by courting the tabloid press? All politicians know that you can’t please all the people all the time but sometimes you have to take unpopular decisions in order to do the right thing. I am reminded of the great quote from the BBC satire The Thick of It (here), which I must confess to having used before but it is so accurate in this instance, which states that many political decisions are taken by “a political class, which has given up on morality and simply pursues popularity at all costs.”

With this little snippet of information in mind, many aspects of government policy now become a lot clearer. It explains, for example, why Theresa May has suddenly gone from being a nominal supporter of the Remain campaign to one of the most ardent advocates of a hard Brexit. And it certainly explains today’s decision by Chancellor Philip Hammond to reverse the increase in National Insurance Contributions for the self-employed. As I noted a few days ago (here), the economic rationale for raising NICs was sound enough. Indeed, the Chancellor reiterated that “the government continues to believe that addressing this unfairness is the right approach … However, since the budget, parliamentary colleagues and others have questioned whether the increase in class 4 contributions is compatible with the tax lock commitments made in our 2015 manifesto."

But if the rationale for implementing the policy was correct, then it logically follows that he has made an economic mistake by reversing the decision. Quite clearly, the decision has been made on political grounds, with the manifesto commitment used as justification. That in itself raises a question of whether the government – and don’t forget that the decision to raise NICs in the budget would have been approved by the prime minister – recalls what it promised in the 2015 election campaign? Or did they just think that no one would notice? Having caved in to populism on this issue, what is to stop the tabloid press making life even more difficult for the government in future? Flip-flops on policy issues like this do not bode well for the government’s policy credibility and should be avoided at all costs.

It also raises a bigger question, which one of the participants raised at today’s event. If in, say, 2019 or 2020 the UK economy has been severely damaged by the prospect of Brexit and the electorate is restive, would the government be tempted to backtrack on its Brexit promise? My answer to that question was, given what we have heard on the issue so far, it would be most unlikely to do so. But knowing what I know now, if the Daily Mail were to change its mind, you would not bet on a change of heart from the government either. Or as Carole King put it, in the song Change in Mind, Change of Heart, “The things that once held meaning / We're no longer sure about.”

Just another day in Brexit Britain

As the self-imposed deadline for triggering the Article 50 legislation draws nearer, it has been a fascinating day of political developments in the UK. First, we had the spectacle of Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon issuing a demand for a second referendum on independence following the plebiscite in 2014. This was followed by the House of Commons voting against any amendments proposed by the House of Lords to the Brexit bill. It thus looks set to be passed into law tonight which in theory will allow the prime minister to formally launch the UK’s departure from the EU tomorrow. One of these events is historic enough, but the prospect of both coming to pass will irrevocably change the nature of the UK. No more United Kingdom, more Little Britain.

First, the Article 50 legislation. Regular readers will know my views: Leaving the EU is a leap in the dark which no amount of breezy confidence from politicians can conceal. Anyone who has ever done a parachute jump will know that for all the pre-jump training, nothing compares to that moment when you leap out of the aircraft for the first time and hope that nothing goes wrong with the chute. So it is with Article 50. If the EU does not play ball on the terms envisaged by the UK government, we could hit the ground with a big thump.

A fine article in The Times today by Clare Foges (here, although apologies for the fact it is behind a paywall) reiterated a point which I have long made, that far too many British politicians hark back to the way which Margaret Thatcher dealt with the tricky subject of UK-EU relations more than 30 years ago, and misinterpret what happened. Thatcher may have thumped the table in order to get her “money back” at the Fontainebleau Summit in 1984 but she did so knowing how far she could push German Chancellor Kohl and French President Mitterrand. She well understood that both Kohl and Mitterrand needed something in return which they could sell to their domestic electorates. In fact, Thatcher got less than she wanted – she was forced to settle for the minimum rebate – and she subsequently became a passionate advocate of the Single European Market. Moreover, as Foges points out, the UK was in the club looking forward to a future in Europe, and although the path was rocky the UK was broadly travelling in the same direction as other EU members.

Fast forward more than three decades to the tin-eared politicians braying that Theresa May should remember the spirit of Fontainebleau. The prime minister can recall the spirit of Nikita Khrushchev to her heart’s content by banging one of her many pairs of shoes on the conference table, but the EU will not listen to threats. The experience of Greece, which tried to dictate terms to the EU over its bailout package in 2015 but was humiliatingly forced to accept austerity conditions worse than those previously rejected, should serve as a salutary reminder that a confrontational approach will not work – even if the UK is not in quite the same position as Greece.

It is against this backdrop that Nicola Sturgeon has reactivated the prospect of another referendum on Scottish independence. Sturgeon’s position appears to be motivated by the fact that the Scottish people overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU and they are certainly not keen on the hard Brexit option being driven by Westminster. In Sturgeon’s words, “all of our efforts at compromise have been met with a brick wall of intransigence.” And whilst many people will have sympathy with Sturgeon’s view on Brexit, there is also a sense that she is using this as a device to push for what the Scottish National Party really wants – and all it has ever wanted – which is independence from the rest of the UK. But under the terms of the Scotland Act, a referendum can only be held with the consent of Westminster – it is not in the gift of the Scottish government to call it. And with Whitehall likely to be completely preoccupied in dealing with Brexit, it certainly will have no appetite for a referendum within the next two years, as Sturgeon is demanding.

As for what the people of Scotland want, there appears to be no great appetite for independence amongst the electorate at present, according to recent polls. Nor is Scotland’s economic position any better than in 2014 – arguably it is worse (I will deal with the economic situation another time). But just like 2014, any referendum will ultimately not be fought on the basis of economic logic. Already up to a third of voters retain an open mind on the prospect of independence and it will likely to be an easier sell than it was the first time round, so it could yet gain a great groundswell of support.

All in all, Brexit threatens to turn the UK political scene into an unholy mess (if it has not done so already). There is a sense that the government only cares about the views of the 52% who voted for Brexit; the Labour Party, which is nominally the opposition holding the government to account, has gone missing in action, and the SNP wants only to distance itself from the whole show. There is nothing United in the Kingdom nor Great about Britain, and if we get the politicians we deserve, what does that say about the voters?