Friday, 24 May 2019

End of an error


After having been critical of Theresa May’s tenure as Prime Minister it would be stretching it to say that I am sorry to see her go, but there is always something unpleasant about seeing a leader being forced from office in the way that she was. Above all else, May is dutiful, dogged and determined – qualities we may yet come to appreciate in the event that Boris Johnson inherits her crown. This would explain why May continued to push forward with her Brexit deal in the teeth of all opposition – she genuinely believed it was her duty to deliver on something that she thought was the reason why she was elected Prime Minister.

In her resignation speech today, May gave hints at the kind of PM she could have been: It was emotional, passionate and reminiscent of the speech that she gave in Downing Street three years ago when she took on the job. She quoted the humanitarian Sir Nicholas Winterton who once told her, “Never forget that compromise is not a dirty word. Life depends on compromise.” Unfortunately during her time in office, the PM did not live up to those principles. Almost up until the last moment, she continued to treat the result of the Brexit referendum as a winner takes all event and showed little sign of listening to the near half of voters who did not share her vision of a post-EU Britain. Her first conference as party leader produced the (in)famous "citizens of nowhere" speech which did nothing to reunite the country in the wake of the Brexit referendum.  Let us also not forget that prior to her tenure in Downing Street, May was a Home Secretary who oversaw a hardening of attitudes towards immigration (remember those Go Home vans?). Empathy and compassion were not words which were used in conjunction with the PM’s character.

Still less would they ascribe the quality of flexibility. Former Labour PM Harold Wilson, who died 24 years ago today, was criticised during his time in office for being flexible in his beliefs, but he managed to keep the UK out of the Vietnam War despite the best entreaties of Lyndon Johnson, and prevented the hard left from taking over the party until long after he had retired. History now remembers him as a canny operator who dealt well with the hand he was given. The same cannot be said of Theresa May. Her doggedness proved to be her undoing as she failed to build a coalition that would have allowed parliament to accept the Withdrawal Agreement. She made the same mistake as her predecessor in pandering to the Eurosceptics by trying to offer them sufficient concessions to keep them onside, not realising that they don’t do compromise. May undermined her own position by tolerating the indiscipline of Boris Johnson, simultaneously emboldening the Brexit ultras whilst making her look weak.

The people May surrounded herself with prior to the ill-fated 2017 election, particularly her advisers Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill, had long shielded her from Conservative Party colleagues and as a result she may have been somewhat out of touch with what they were thinking. Indeed it was at their behest that May became the central figure in the 2017 election campaign, but it transpired that the more the electorate saw of her the less they were impressed. After Hill and Timothy left in the wake of the election debacle, it often seemed as though the PM was somewhat rudderless.

All in all, May will not rank as a great Prime Minister and this is someone who succeeded David Cameron – a man who will forever be associated with the failed gamble of the EU referendum. She promised to deliver Brexit and failed – a matter of intense personal regret for her. However, she may not go down as the worst PM since 1945: One study suggested that this dubious honour should be bestowed on Sir Anthony Eden who was PM between April 1955 and January 1957.

I looked yesterday at how events might pan out over the next few months (here) and a more detailed look at the succession candidates can wait for another time. However, the demise of Theresa May might just herald the end of the traditional centrist Conservative Party. Across the industrialised world, the traditional political party lines are being redrawn. Voters identify less with the distinction between labour and capital, which has characterised the political landscape for many decades, than with where parties stand on particular issues, notably nationalism which finds expression in the UK in the form of Brexit.

As the Tories tack to the right and Labour to the left a huge void has opened up in the centre of British politics, which will have major implications for the course of economic policy. So far, no party has emerged to fill that void. The breakaway splinter group Change UK does not appear to have gained sufficient momentum to be that movement. Consequently, many millions of voters continue to see themselves as politically homeless. In better times, Theresa May might have been viewed more sympathetically as one who did her best under trying circumstances. But her inflexible approach to Brexit helped to widen the political gap that had been emerging for a while. As she prepares to leave office, however, it is worth reflecting that her reputation will be judged against the achievements of her successor. History may yet judge her more favourably than the commentariat does today.

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