The failure of the political class
After a relaxing Brexit-free fortnight, UK parliament resumed on Monday and was plunged into a series of constitutional crises related to the apparently never-ending Brexit shenanigans. As one who has followed the twists and turns in this debate from the very start, it is highly frustrating at this point of the proceedings to see that politicians are still treating the most serious economic and political event in British modern history as if it were the subject of an undergraduate debating society.
Just before Christmas The Economist’s Bagehot column published a particularly scathing critique of the UK’s political class. In The Economist’s words “the country’s model of leadership is disintegrating. Britain is governed by a self-involved clique that rewards group membership above competence and self-confidence above expertise.” The article points out that David Cameron “rewarded … pals for losing an unlosable referendum, with peerages [and] knighthoods” whilst the system is “introverted and self-regarding, sending its members straight from university to jobs in the Westminster village.” It goes on to criticise the “new political class [for being ] devoid of self-restraint, precisely because it thinks it owes its position to personal merit rather than the luck of birth.” In another article in the same edition, The Economist calls Theresa May “politically unembarrassable” for remaining in office “despite losing her majority in an election that was considered unlosable.” Jeremy Corbyn, Labour’s leader, “is perhaps more shameless still: in 2016 he refused to budge even after losing a confidence vote among his MPs, on the basis that under Labour’s rules the members pick the leader.”
Not all politicians deserve to be tarred with the same brush, of course, but when it comes to Brexit too many of them fail to adhere to Mark Twain’s maxim that it is best to keep quiet and be thought a fool than open one’s mouth and remove all doubt. Take for example the view expressed by the prime minister in December that another referendum “would do irreparable damage to the integrity of our politics.” It will not require another referendum to damage the integrity of the political system: In the minds of many people, MPs are doing a good enough job of that on their own.
Parliament to the rescue?
I am not altogether sure whether the Brexit-related events of this week show parliament in a good light or not - only time will tell. To recap, a House of Commons motion was amended by backbench MP (and former Attorney General) Dominic Grieve which will force the government to put forward its Plan B within three days of the Withdrawal Bill being defeated in the parliamentary vote – something which is seen as inevitable next week. Controversy arose because the motion was believed to be unamendable and was only altered thanks to the intervention of the House of Commons Speaker – a move which was deemed unconstitutional by Brexit supporting MPs. But as Grieve pointed out, the previous requirement for the government to present its Plan B 21 days after parliamentary defeat was no longer credible after it wasted four valuable weeks by postponing the vote which should have taken place in December.
There is a huge irony in the complaints of those MPs who deem the actions of the Speaker unconstitutional for he has effectively enhanced parliament’s power over the Brexit process. Those who are serious about taking back control surely have to recognise that parliament is the only sovereign body. Looking back over the past two years, the government’s original plan that only it would manage the Brexit process has been gradually stripped away piece by piece – recall that in 2016 the government envisaged little role for parliament in the Brexit process which was only reversed following an intervention by the courts. Of course the full consequences of the Speaker’s decision will only be manifest in the course of time: If a precedent has been set that allows parliamentary motions to be amended in this way, it will reduce the government’s control over the parliamentary process which could have major adverse consequences in future.
Dealing with the vote
But that is not a consideration for today. All attention is fixed on next week’s vote on the Withdrawal Agreement which is likely to be rejected – by a substantial margin if current rumours are true. Although the government has not so far countenanced the prospect of defeat, there are signs it is beginning to realise that the game is up. We are thus back to the position of asking what happens next? If Theresa May were not so “politically unembarrassable” she might consider resigning given the extent to which her credibility is bound up in the deal her government has reached with the EU. Somehow I can’t see that happening: The prime minister believes she has a duty to see Brexit through and is too dogged to resign. But a three day window gives the UK too little time to go back to Brussels to try and get some concessions from the EU which will not be granted in any case.
My default position remains that the UK will be forced to extend the Article 50 period. Whilst the EU is likely to grant such a request in order to prevent the chaos that would result from a hard Brexit, it might yet call upon the UK to justify such an action by asking whether it plans a general election or even a second referendum. As abhorrent to the government as the latter option might be, the former is even less palatable since there is a real possibility that the Conservatives’ position would be weakened still further.
To say that the government is between a rock and a hard place is an understatement. I recently came across an article in the Daily Telegraph suggesting that the situation facing Britain 40 years ago during the Winter of Discontent was far worse than the position we find ourselves in today. It isn’t! Like the Conservative government today, the then-Labour government was a prisoner of factions within its own party. But unlike 40 years ago when the Labour Party was fraying at the edges in the same way that the Tories are now, the government was still coherent. It also faced credible political opposition in the form of Margaret Thatcher who took office soon after. The scars of 1978-79 thus healed relatively quickly and although this period gets regurgitated from time to time, most people dismiss it fairly quickly. I fear this will not be the case with Brexit. To quote Shakespeare, “NOW is the winter of our discontent.”
After a relaxing Brexit-free fortnight, UK parliament resumed on Monday and was plunged into a series of constitutional crises related to the apparently never-ending Brexit shenanigans. As one who has followed the twists and turns in this debate from the very start, it is highly frustrating at this point of the proceedings to see that politicians are still treating the most serious economic and political event in British modern history as if it were the subject of an undergraduate debating society.
Just before Christmas The Economist’s Bagehot column published a particularly scathing critique of the UK’s political class. In The Economist’s words “the country’s model of leadership is disintegrating. Britain is governed by a self-involved clique that rewards group membership above competence and self-confidence above expertise.” The article points out that David Cameron “rewarded … pals for losing an unlosable referendum, with peerages [and] knighthoods” whilst the system is “introverted and self-regarding, sending its members straight from university to jobs in the Westminster village.” It goes on to criticise the “new political class [for being ] devoid of self-restraint, precisely because it thinks it owes its position to personal merit rather than the luck of birth.” In another article in the same edition, The Economist calls Theresa May “politically unembarrassable” for remaining in office “despite losing her majority in an election that was considered unlosable.” Jeremy Corbyn, Labour’s leader, “is perhaps more shameless still: in 2016 he refused to budge even after losing a confidence vote among his MPs, on the basis that under Labour’s rules the members pick the leader.”
Not all politicians deserve to be tarred with the same brush, of course, but when it comes to Brexit too many of them fail to adhere to Mark Twain’s maxim that it is best to keep quiet and be thought a fool than open one’s mouth and remove all doubt. Take for example the view expressed by the prime minister in December that another referendum “would do irreparable damage to the integrity of our politics.” It will not require another referendum to damage the integrity of the political system: In the minds of many people, MPs are doing a good enough job of that on their own.
Parliament to the rescue?
I am not altogether sure whether the Brexit-related events of this week show parliament in a good light or not - only time will tell. To recap, a House of Commons motion was amended by backbench MP (and former Attorney General) Dominic Grieve which will force the government to put forward its Plan B within three days of the Withdrawal Bill being defeated in the parliamentary vote – something which is seen as inevitable next week. Controversy arose because the motion was believed to be unamendable and was only altered thanks to the intervention of the House of Commons Speaker – a move which was deemed unconstitutional by Brexit supporting MPs. But as Grieve pointed out, the previous requirement for the government to present its Plan B 21 days after parliamentary defeat was no longer credible after it wasted four valuable weeks by postponing the vote which should have taken place in December.
There is a huge irony in the complaints of those MPs who deem the actions of the Speaker unconstitutional for he has effectively enhanced parliament’s power over the Brexit process. Those who are serious about taking back control surely have to recognise that parliament is the only sovereign body. Looking back over the past two years, the government’s original plan that only it would manage the Brexit process has been gradually stripped away piece by piece – recall that in 2016 the government envisaged little role for parliament in the Brexit process which was only reversed following an intervention by the courts. Of course the full consequences of the Speaker’s decision will only be manifest in the course of time: If a precedent has been set that allows parliamentary motions to be amended in this way, it will reduce the government’s control over the parliamentary process which could have major adverse consequences in future.
Dealing with the vote
But that is not a consideration for today. All attention is fixed on next week’s vote on the Withdrawal Agreement which is likely to be rejected – by a substantial margin if current rumours are true. Although the government has not so far countenanced the prospect of defeat, there are signs it is beginning to realise that the game is up. We are thus back to the position of asking what happens next? If Theresa May were not so “politically unembarrassable” she might consider resigning given the extent to which her credibility is bound up in the deal her government has reached with the EU. Somehow I can’t see that happening: The prime minister believes she has a duty to see Brexit through and is too dogged to resign. But a three day window gives the UK too little time to go back to Brussels to try and get some concessions from the EU which will not be granted in any case.
My default position remains that the UK will be forced to extend the Article 50 period. Whilst the EU is likely to grant such a request in order to prevent the chaos that would result from a hard Brexit, it might yet call upon the UK to justify such an action by asking whether it plans a general election or even a second referendum. As abhorrent to the government as the latter option might be, the former is even less palatable since there is a real possibility that the Conservatives’ position would be weakened still further.
To say that the government is between a rock and a hard place is an understatement. I recently came across an article in the Daily Telegraph suggesting that the situation facing Britain 40 years ago during the Winter of Discontent was far worse than the position we find ourselves in today. It isn’t! Like the Conservative government today, the then-Labour government was a prisoner of factions within its own party. But unlike 40 years ago when the Labour Party was fraying at the edges in the same way that the Tories are now, the government was still coherent. It also faced credible political opposition in the form of Margaret Thatcher who took office soon after. The scars of 1978-79 thus healed relatively quickly and although this period gets regurgitated from time to time, most people dismiss it fairly quickly. I fear this will not be the case with Brexit. To quote Shakespeare, “NOW is the winter of our discontent.”
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