Choose your enemies wisely

As the Brexit clock ticks closer to March 2019 the UK political landscape is increasingly fissiparous as Theresa May tries to appease both sides of her fractured party whilst managing to satisfy neither.  With regard to Brexit, her main tactic has been to play for time in the hope that something will turn up. But it is increasingly apparent that it has not, and will not, and May is reaching the stage where she will have to demonstrate some proper leadership in order to ensure that the UK gets the deal that it wants. As Simon Nixon pointed out in a recent Wall Street Journal article the PM has embraced a number of contradictory positions and she will have to decide which of them she is going to break. In doing so, the PM will make enemies – it is merely a question of choosing those who cause her the least harm.

Consider first the group of backbench MPs, led by Jacob Rees-Mogg, who regard themselves as keepers of the Brexit flame. JRM’s latest stunt has been to warn the prime minister that if she goes ahead with her plan to pursue a customs partnership with the EU, his 60-strong faction of MPs will withdraw their support. Rees-Mogg’s objection is that it would “leave us de facto in the customs union and the single market.” For many – including most economists – that is not such a bad idea. But it is (a) legally not true and (b) the EU27 is not very enthusiastic about a plan whereby the UK collects tariffs set by the EU customs union on goods coming into the UK on its behalf. If Rees-Mogg really wants to play a clever game, his best tactic would be to let the EU sink the plan without the need to create waves at home.

But whilst the pro-Brexit lobby is large and vocal, the Conservatives hold 317 seats in parliament. The awkward squad is outnumbered roughly 5-1 by more moderate MPs, some of whom are opposed to Brexit and others who are not willing to go to the barricades on the issue of the customs union. Admittedly, it would take only 48 Conservative MPs (15% of their parliamentary representation) to issue a motion of no-confidence in the leader, so incurring the wrath of Rees-Mogg and his chums would have consequences. But if Theresa May really wants to demonstrate some leadership, perhaps it is now time to face down those who continue to pursue a ruinous Brexit policy. She may not win a leadership contest, because she does not have the wholehearted support of the Remainers, but it seems doubtful that the Brexit ultras would win either. It is time to force the issue. As I have noted previously, Theresa May might have been the least worst option as leader in summer 2016 but it is not clear that she is the right candidate now to deliver the Brexit deal – at least, so long as she is not prepared to challenge her opponents.

That said, whilst it is easy to criticise Theresa May for her caution, we also have to be mindful of the wider backdrop against which she is operating. As the Withdrawal Bill proceeds through the House of Lords, the government has now suffered ten defeats on important legislative matters. The key vote took place on Monday, when peers voted to give parliament a decisive say on the outcome of the final Brexit negotiations rather than simply allowing the government to decide. Of course, this is not set in stone: When the bill goes back to the lower house, MPs will be able to vote on whether to overturn this amendment. However, it triggered much frothing of the mouth in the tabloid press with the Daily Mail accusing “the Remainer elite “ of “fighting a guerrilla war against Brexit using any weapon it can.”

We have come to expect such rabid commentaries from this particular organ over the last couple of years. Clearly, the headline writers do not appear to understand the UK’s constitutional setup in which the House of Lords has no power to block legislation. There again, the paper demonstrated a similar lack of constitutional understanding following the infamous “Enemies of the People” headline when the High Court ruled that parliament should  be given a vote before triggering Article 50. The political editor James Slack either did not realise that the judiciary is separate from government, or more likely, did know and planted a fake news story. This time around, the irony appears to be lost on the Mail that one of the key themes in the whole Brexit debate was about taking back control – British laws decided in the British parliament, and all that – and the House of Lords is giving parliament the opportunity to do just that.

It is precisely because of such vitriolic nonsense that the prime minister has to be very circumspect in how she deals with the Brexit debate. She is simply obeying the Machiavellian dictum to keep your friends close and your enemies closer. But to borrow the old SAS slogan, she who dares wins.