No steps forward, two steps back

As politicians go, I have a lot of time for former Chancellor Ken Clarke. Anyone who can survive the rudderless Major government of 1992-97 with their reputation intact, never mind enhanced as in Clarke’s case, is a person of substance. Clarke is also a prominent Remainer, who described himself on a Twitter account as a one-nation Tory. He is, in other words, an old-fashioned centrist who is loyal to his party but is not averse to working across party lines on issues of major importance. Indeed, Clarke was the only Conservative MP to vote against the bill triggering Article 50. This is ironic, since his constituents voted to leave the EU in last year’s referendum whereas many of his party colleagues represent areas which voted Remain yet who still voted to initiate the Article 50 process. If you are half as confused as I am by the “will of the people” argument, then I am twice as confused as you.

I had originally planned to quote some of the latest tweets from Clarke’s Twitter account but the account has been suspended, which has to raise questions as to whether it was genuine (pace this week’s big debate about whether fake tweets from Russian bots had undue influence on the Brexit referendum). Nonetheless, the sentiments expressed on the account sounded sufficiently Clarke-ite to bear repeating. One thing particularly caught my eye, which was that although many people have significant reservations about Brexit, including many MPs, the government is committed to the process. It cannot easily be stopped, however much we might wish that were the case. But that does not mean that Conservative MPs should not oppose the most egregiously stupid parts of the process.

As the EU Withdrawal Bill enters the committee stage, with MPs able to table amendments to the original bill, we are now beginning to get a more clear idea of who is opposed and what they object to. As an aside, it should be noted that twelve months ago, this piece of legislation was designated as the Great Repeal Bill which was originally designed to transpose EU law into UK law whilst giving government the powers to strike out those bits they deem inapplicable. Easy, right? Except for the fact that the process is far more complicated in practice, and there is also the small matter of parliamentary accountability. As currently envisaged, the bill gives government the power to strike out EU laws without parliamentary scrutiny (the so-called Henry VIII clause) which rather makes a mockery of the claim that the British parliament will once again take control of British laws.

Having decided on a more prosaic name for the bill, the government is finding it tough to keep its legislative process on track. Brexit Secretary David Davis has promised that MPs will be given a vote on any final deal agreed with the EU. Whilst that is a concession relative to what was originally proposed, it is meaningless, particularly in view of Theresa May’s promise to put the exact time and date of the UK’s departure from the EU into the bill. For one thing, Davis offers only a take-it-or-leave-it vote, so if MPs reject the plan, the UK will leave the EU without any deal, which would be crazy. Second, if the negotiations go to the wire then MPs will not have the opportunity to consider its content before the proposed deadline. As many MPs, including Ken Clarke, pointed out this reduces the government’s flexibility with regard to dealing with any last minutes hiccups. Better to delay a week or more to allow for more discussion than maintain an artificial deadline simply for the sake of political pride.

With 15 Conservative MPs apparently prepared to block the insertion of the specific date into the bill (or, as the Daily Telegraph would have it, "mutineers"), it is likely that the parliamentary process will be far slower than the government initially expected, and the committee stage may not be completed by Christmas as planned, which could delay its passage into law beyond next spring. Under normal circumstances, the sensible option would be to allow more time for these complex negotiations to take place. But time is the one thing the government does not have. Indeed, we have just gone past the halfway point between the date of the referendum and the proposed EU departure date, and it does not feel that we are much beyond the wish-list phase.

Ironically, Manfred Weber, the German MEP who heads the European People's Party Group in the European Parliament and is an ally of Angela Merkel, today held meetings with Theresa May and David Davis and declared himself “more optimistic” about the possibility of reaching agreement with the UK than before (which I assume means she has offered more money). But he also said “the whole idea of building up the European Union, which was supported by the British governments … was to make the lives of European citizens better. We are destroying some of the things that we achieved already. We will regret it … It is a shame there is not the will to stay together.”

I happen to believe he is right, particularly when Politico reports that the UK will at best be offered a basic Canada-style trade deal on exit, and not the broader bespoke deal that Theresa May hoped for – a view which I have heard from another senior EU policymaker in the course of a conversation this week. Indeed, the same person said that a Norway style deal would not work for the UK, given the complexity of the British economy, and since a Swiss-style deal was never going to be on the table, it’s Canada or nothing.

But the most galling part is that the government does not have a coherent plan on how to leave the EU, let alone how to deal with the aftermath. It is car-crash politics, and diminishes the UK by leaving it economically weaker and politically more isolated. But sometimes the only way people learn is through their own mistakes. Unfortunately we all suffer in the process.