Being Wayne Rooney

Wayne Rooney is one of the most famous footballers in the world. He is the record goal scorer for his club, Manchester United, and for the English national team, and has won everything worth winning at club level (including 5 league titles, an FA Cup and the Champions League). However, over the last 12 months, questions have increasingly been raised about his continued ability to cut it at the highest level which has raised speculation that he will leave Man United at the end of the season. Not that football journalists know anything – The Guardian reported earlier this month that he would leave the club at the end of the season  having suggested just three months ago that he has no intention of leaving. Meanwhile the fans, not exactly models of consistency themselves, are generally in agreement that it is time to go.

But whilst the fans treat usually football decisions in the context of the on-field activities, there are in reality a lot of other economic factors to consider. Look at it from Rooney’s point of view. He is 31 years old and reported to be paid around £300k per week on a contract  believed to run until June 2019. Even if we assume this figure is around £260k, as reported in a number of media outlets, this means he can expect a gross income in the region of £27 million even if he never kicks a ball again. From the club’s perspective, it would appear to make sense to offload their highest earner if he is no longer able to perform at the level demanded of him. Indeed, as of mid-2016, the club was paying out £203 million per annum on wages – implying that Rooney accounted for just less than 7% of the total.

But Man United also earned £268 million in commercial revenue – primarily sponsorship and retail activities (here for more detail on the club’s accounts. It is slow to load, but worth it for an in-depth look at the accounts of a major football club). We should be in no doubt that Rooney has helped sell a lot of replica shirts. But now that he is no longer in the England squad, his commercial value will undoubtedly have slumped. Footballing considerations aside, the club appears to have little to gain financially by keeping him on. Of course, no other club in Europe is going to pay Rooney £13.5 million per year so unless he decides to join the exodus to China, where silly money is apparently on offer, what to do? The rational response would be to hang around for the next couple of years and bank the cash. Fans forums would, of course, be inundated with comments suggesting that he is only in it for the money and that such actions will tarnish his legacy. But frankly, you can trash my legacy for £27 million any day.

Rooney’s logical response to this criticism should be to ask the fans what they would do in the same situation? If your employer told you not to come in to work for the next two years whilst still paying your salary, most people would say it is illogical to refuse. After all, you could travel; learn a foreign language; do further study or take up a new hobby. Failure to understand the rationality of this position is a form of cognitive bias, defined as “a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment, whereby inferences about other people and situations may be drawn in an illogical fashion.” It is not just football fans who suffer such biases, of course. Financial markets are riddled with them, which goes towards explaining why many investors make decisions which they can justify at the time but with hindsight appear ridiculous.

As it happens, the rumour mill is in full swing suggesting that various clubs are currently bidding for Rooney’s services. He may indeed be tempted to go elsewhere: It is not as if he is short of money so he can presumably afford to take a pay cut. The motivations for him wanting to do so are fully in line with evidence from psychology which suggests that factors other than money can motivate sportspeople. Like actors, sportsmen (and women) are motivated by adulation. So long as he continues to be reasonably well paid, Rooney might be tempted to trade off some of his extraordinarily high current salary for a lower one and a continued presence in the public eye.

Still, it’s a nice problem to have. As for me, if I were faced with Rooney’s decision I’d take the money on offer from Man United. In fact, I would take a small fraction of his salary in order not to play football. Now you might say that I am not as good a footballer as Wayne Rooney so am in no way as deserving. But that is only true on the field of play. When both of us are doing nothing, I’m just as good as he is.