Sometimes you just have to admit that you are out of tune
with the Zeitgeist. Having endured Theresa May’s speech yesterday when she set
out her vision for a post-Brexit Britain, it seems that there is little point
in engaging in rational debate. After all, nobody else seems to be interested.
Donald Trump won an election in this fashion; Boris Johnson went from being the
ex-Mayor of London to UK Foreign Secretary via a Brexit campaign and
Vladimir Putin invaded a sovereign state – the common denominator being that
all of them spun a web of lies and deceit in order to ensure that the debate
was conducted on their terms rather than the awkward reality which we used to
call facts. They say you can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the
people some of the time. But in our post-truth world, it feels like mainstream politicians
are trying to fool all of the people all of the time.
When the PM opened yesterday’s speech with the line “A little over 6 months ago, the British people voted for change. They voted to shape a brighter future for our country. They voted to leave the European Union and embrace the world,” I had to pinch myself to ensure that I was not dreaming of the occasion when the electorate overwhelmingly rejected EU membership. When May noted that "after all the division and discord, the country is coming together," I wondered whether she had bothered to consult with Scottish MPs who clearly do not share the same desire to exit the EU.
As she went on to outline that one of the reasons why British citizens have a problem with EU bureaucracy is that “supranational institutions as strong as those created by the European Union sit very uneasily in relation to our political history and way of life,” I realised I had it all wrong. Clearly, the fact that the UK has one of the most centralised governments in Europe is a figment of my imagination. The European Economy Discussion Paper published by Charles Wyplosz in 2015 (here) citing research which showed that UK sub-central government spending as a share of total public outlays is (along with the Netherlands) the lowest in the EU, is obviously fake news.
And then it really went downhill. The UK government intends to leave the Single Market in an action which I can only describe as one of economic self-harm. But that’s OK because “we will take back control of our laws and bring an end to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.” That would be the same ECJ which ruled in favour of the UK in 2012 when the ECB tried to ensure that the clearing of all euro denominated transactions should take place in the euro zone, rather than in the London financial market. May must have forgotten the court’s ruling that “the ECB lacks the competence necessary to regulate the activity of securities clearing systems as its competence is limited to payment systems alone.” A small oversight, I’m sure.
Moreover, the UK will obtain the benefit of being able to control immigration. Hoorah, I hear you cry. The woman who failed to control immigration when she was Home Secretary will be given the opportunity to do so at the expense of the UK’s economic self-interest. It is evident that the PM is happy to trade off access to the Single Market against the ability to control our borders. And if someone can enlighten me as to what the benefits of this are, please feel free to leave a comment.
As if this were not enough, the prime minister urged the EU to accommodate the UK’sdemands wishes
because not to do so would be “an act of
calamitous self-harm … Britain would not – indeed we could not – accept such an
approach. I am equally clear that no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal
for Britain.” This was translated by the headline in The Times this
morning as “Give us a fair deal or you’ll be crushed”, and by the Daily Mail as
“Steel of the new Iron Lady” as memories of the blessed Margaret were rekindled
(here if you must).
But as the eminently sensible Rachel Sylvester pointed out in The Times yesterday, May is looking at a still image of the EU when in reality it is a moving picture. She has “a two-dimensional view of the EU negotiations but she risks being skewered by her own inflexibility” as the debate regarding immigration changes across the continent. Sylvester also quoted one senior businessman who said, “They are living in a fool’s paradise. There’s still a belief that the Europeans will blink, that they need us more than they need them, and I don’t believe that for a second.”
I wrote in a note yesterday that May’s speech does not constitute a plan: It is a wish list. It is an opening gambit in a poker game where the UK does not hold many good cards. Worse, the hand is being played by a bunch of bluffers. When it comes to the crunch, the UK negotiating team will have to step up to the big league where they will learn when to fold and when to hold. Meantime, the economy (i.e. the voters) will pay the price for such arrogance. But what do I know? I am clearly thinking in the old ways and we should never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
When the PM opened yesterday’s speech with the line “A little over 6 months ago, the British people voted for change. They voted to shape a brighter future for our country. They voted to leave the European Union and embrace the world,” I had to pinch myself to ensure that I was not dreaming of the occasion when the electorate overwhelmingly rejected EU membership. When May noted that "after all the division and discord, the country is coming together," I wondered whether she had bothered to consult with Scottish MPs who clearly do not share the same desire to exit the EU.
As she went on to outline that one of the reasons why British citizens have a problem with EU bureaucracy is that “supranational institutions as strong as those created by the European Union sit very uneasily in relation to our political history and way of life,” I realised I had it all wrong. Clearly, the fact that the UK has one of the most centralised governments in Europe is a figment of my imagination. The European Economy Discussion Paper published by Charles Wyplosz in 2015 (here) citing research which showed that UK sub-central government spending as a share of total public outlays is (along with the Netherlands) the lowest in the EU, is obviously fake news.
And then it really went downhill. The UK government intends to leave the Single Market in an action which I can only describe as one of economic self-harm. But that’s OK because “we will take back control of our laws and bring an end to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice.” That would be the same ECJ which ruled in favour of the UK in 2012 when the ECB tried to ensure that the clearing of all euro denominated transactions should take place in the euro zone, rather than in the London financial market. May must have forgotten the court’s ruling that “the ECB lacks the competence necessary to regulate the activity of securities clearing systems as its competence is limited to payment systems alone.” A small oversight, I’m sure.
Moreover, the UK will obtain the benefit of being able to control immigration. Hoorah, I hear you cry. The woman who failed to control immigration when she was Home Secretary will be given the opportunity to do so at the expense of the UK’s economic self-interest. It is evident that the PM is happy to trade off access to the Single Market against the ability to control our borders. And if someone can enlighten me as to what the benefits of this are, please feel free to leave a comment.
As if this were not enough, the prime minister urged the EU to accommodate the UK’s
But as the eminently sensible Rachel Sylvester pointed out in The Times yesterday, May is looking at a still image of the EU when in reality it is a moving picture. She has “a two-dimensional view of the EU negotiations but she risks being skewered by her own inflexibility” as the debate regarding immigration changes across the continent. Sylvester also quoted one senior businessman who said, “They are living in a fool’s paradise. There’s still a belief that the Europeans will blink, that they need us more than they need them, and I don’t believe that for a second.”
I wrote in a note yesterday that May’s speech does not constitute a plan: It is a wish list. It is an opening gambit in a poker game where the UK does not hold many good cards. Worse, the hand is being played by a bunch of bluffers. When it comes to the crunch, the UK negotiating team will have to step up to the big league where they will learn when to fold and when to hold. Meantime, the economy (i.e. the voters) will pay the price for such arrogance. But what do I know? I am clearly thinking in the old ways and we should never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
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