Thursday 27 October 2016

Reflections on Big Bang


Today was a momentous one in financial circles as it is the 30th anniversary of Big Bang – the day which marked the deregulation of many of the restrictive practices which had previously characterised the City of London. It marked a turning point for many of the small firms which had formed the backbone of the City’s financial expertise, and which were soon to be swallowed up by the international giants with deep pockets. It also marked an end to the gentleman’s club atmosphere which had hitherto prevailed: Long boozy lunches were out and an era of sober hard work was ushered in. In his history of the City of London, the historian David Kynaston records that it was once previously impossible to take a train from the stockbroker belt in Surrey to arrive in London before 9 am. Pretty soon, people had to get used to the idea of early starts, and 7 am became the norm. After all, the markets never sleep so why should you?

For those committed to the cause, the monetary rewards were high. But whilst a City job may have initially served as a way for ‘barrowboys’, as young traders were once known, to advance their career it soon became evident that a sharp suit and quick tongue were not going to be enough to compete in an increasingly technical world. The concentration of PhD scientists and mathematicians employed in finance today would put many a university faculty to shame. But questions have been asked over the last three decades about whether much of what the City does is socially useful. It does keep many economists off the street, so that is probably a bonus. However, the criticism that too many of the smartest people are diverted towards finance and away from more socially productive roles is valid. Even more pernicious is that fact that the scrutiny to which companies are now subject means that many CEOs and finance directors look no further ahead than the next set of quarterly results. That is hardly a new criticism but it does seem to have gained momentum in recent years.

In the wake of the crash of 2008, the problems of footloose capital and lax regulatory oversight were laid bare. The industry created many products which those selling did not fully understand (anyone for a CDO, or even a CDO-squared?) let alone those buying. Caveat emptor is all very well but what about caveat venditor? Such products indeed yielded no social benefit, and adding poorly understood risks to an overly indebted financial system contributed to the severity of the crash. People sold such products because they were rewarded for doing so. And this highlights the fact that as the financial industry evolved, the compensation structures did not. Thirty years ago, partners were the rainmakers who brought in the money and were rewarded handsomely. But they also had a financial stake in the company and if it went south, so did their finances.

However, many people in the brave new world were paid as if they were partners when they were merely hired hands, playing with the company’s money and not their own. This created a series of false incentives which encouraged the monster to feed on itself. It also explained why many institutions were so keen to hide a lot of their debt off-balance sheet. Had it been discovered earlier, many practices would have been stopped earlier and a lot of people would have become less rich.

Remember the crash of 1987? Remember how we were all horrified in 1995 when Barings went bust, as a “common” trader laid waste to a blue-blooded institution? Or BCCI? Or Michael Milliken and a host of other unsavoury types? For all the fact that regulators are trying to clean up the banks, and indeed banks themselves are doing their best to snuff out many of the risks, we will never be able to make them 100% safe. The seeds of the 2008 crash were arguably sown by Big Bang and we are living with the consequences today. But for all the bad things which resulted from the great financial liberalisation, London did get something out of it as it helped to regenerate it as an international city. For anyone who doubts how far we have come, look at the photos of Docklands in 1986 which was emerging from a post-industrial wasteland. The shops and office blocks of today did not exist, and anyone who considered buying the newly built residential properties was considered slightly mad. But what an investment return it would have yielded!

The go-go days of 1986 will never return. Nor will the City which it usurped. One of my favourite stories of the pre-Big Bang days concerns two brothers who fought in World War I. Cyril Frisby won the Victoria Cross, the highest UK military award for valour. Lionel merely won the Military Cross and the DSO. Both subsequently worked on the floor of the London Stock Exchange and in order that people could distinguish which brother was being referred to in conversation, Lionel was universally and memorably referred to as ‘The Coward.’ Try that sort of behaviour on a trading floor today and see how far you get …

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