This comes just four months after the previous incumbent,
David Davis, resigned when it became clear he could not support the Chequers
Plan. To misquote Oscar Wilde, to lose one Brexit Secretary is unfortunate but
to lose two is careless. To be charitable, the job of Brexit Secretary is a
thankless task for a Leaver when the process is being controlled by the prime
minister’s office. But it is also an indication of how difficult it is to
deliver the kind of EU departure that would satisfy Brexit supporters. In
addition to Raab and Davis, we should not forget that junior minister
Steve Baker, another prominent Brexit supporter, also left DExEU in July to
form the trio we should name DExEU’s Midnight Runners. As was the case in the
wake of the referendum in summer 2016, it is another example of how Brexit
supporters tend to run away from the mess they have created. And when they have
been given ministerial responsibility, they have not exactly covered themselves
in glory with Boris Johnson widely regarded as one of the worst Foreign Secretaries
of all time.
But it is not just Brexiteers who object to the Withdrawal
Agreement, as Theresa May’s session to parliament indicated this morning. Many
MPs will vote against the EU agreement for a variety of reasons – perhaps
because they are opposed to the terms of the deal, or simply because they
oppose Brexit. Or, in the case of the opposition Labour Party, because the
leadership sees this as an opportunity to force a general election. Despite the
mounting opposition, Theresa May is doggedly determined to put the Withdrawal
Agreement to parliament. And as I noted yesterday,
it can still pass depending on the number of Conservative dissenters. But the
risks are rising.
The first problem is the position of the prime minister
herself. Jacob Rees-Mogg was the first MP to send a letter of no confidence in
the PM to the backbench 1922 Committee and up to 12 others have confirmed they
have followed suit. Recall that it will take 48 such letters to trigger a
leadership contest. JRM has no chance of becoming leader himself and of the
others known to have sent letters, the likes of Brexiteers Steve Baker, Nadine
Dorries and Andrew Bridgen have as much chance of becoming PM as I do of
winning the Nobel Prize for physics. Indeed, the latter two characters belong
to the category of politician characterised by Irish journalist Fintan O’Toole
as “the genuine hallmarked,
unadulterated, slack-jawed, open-mouthed, village idiot variety.” As O’Toole pointed out “the Brexiteer MP
Nadine Dorries admitted in effect that she didn’t know what a customs union is.
Her comrade Andrew Bridgen said last month: ‘As an English person, I do have
the right to go over to Ireland and I believe that I can ask for a passport.
Can’t I?’” (Don’t believe it? Listen here.)
Whatever the PM’s personal position, we now have to reckon
with the real possibility that the Withdrawal Agreement may not pass through
parliament. What happens if it does not? The first recourse would be to go back
to Brussels and secure a minor concession on the pretext of being able to put
the bill before parliament for a second time. If that fails then Theresa May is
in real trouble. The sensible strategy at that point would be to extend the duration
of the Article 50 process, which is possible if there is unanimity on all
sides. But May explicitly ruled out that option this morning (again). So either she reneges on her commitment or is
forced to resign whilst another Conservative prime minister is installed who is
prepared to extend the Article 50 period. Politicians at this stage appear more
likely to ask for an extension than push for a second referendum. In any case,
given that time is short, it is likely that an extended Article 50 period is a
prerequisite to enable a “people’s vote” because it almost certainly cannot now
take place before 29 March 2019.
None of this will satisfy the “slack-jawed, open-mouthed,
village idiot” brigade which believes that no deal is better than compromise.
But they are losing ground in the war to deliver their form of Brexit. A poll conducted today by Sky News suggests that whilst only 14% of respondents support the prime minister’s deal,
54% would prefer no Brexit versus just 32% for a no deal outcome. We know how
reliable polls can be, but this is not a one-off result. And whilst Theresa May
gets a pretty low approval rating of just 31% in terms of those most trusted to lead the
country through the Brexit process, she still leads Jeremy Corbyn and is well
ahead of Boris Johnson and JRM.
For politicians who set so much store by delivering the
“will of the people” it seems that many of them have lost touch with it. The
electorate is becoming fed up with the political posturing and any politician
prepared to gamble with the country’s economic future ought to think twice, for
the electorate may yet wreak its revenge.