Start listening

Two years ago Boris Johnson won a thumping majority at a general election which produced the Conservatives’ best result since 1987. It has since been anything but plain sailing. Whilst Covid has changed both the political and economic landscape, the government has made a series of unforced errors which has called its authority into question. Effective leadership in the UK has been conspicuous by its absence of late and the issues are now beginning to cut through with the electorate. The Conservatives’ heavy defeat at the North Shropshire by-election, which until this week had returned a Tory MP to Westminster at every plebiscite since 1832, is an indication that all is not well.

It is ironic that the by-election did not need to happen at all – it was only triggered by the resignation of Owen Paterson who, if he had accepted the 30-day suspension imposed by the parliamentary Standards Committee, would still be an MP. The fact that the government tried to bend the rules to keep Paterson in place has opened up a whole can of worms, with last month’s corruption stories being supplanted by a media furore over parties in Downing Street last Christmas in breach of the social distancing regulations in place at the time. This comes on the back of the Dominic Cummings affair, when one of the PM’s senior advisers was able to flout lockdown rules. It is not just the actions of politicians which are causing the public to be restive. The police refusal to investigate the issues are straining the electorate’s credulity and patience, especially when people faced criminal charges for holding gatherings at the same time as the Downing Street event took place (this video sums up the popular view).

A government in trouble but let's not get carried away

Although the double-digit vaccine-driven Tory lead in the opinion polls at mid-year had narrowed somewhat, even in early-October they enjoyed a comfortable six point lead. This has evaporated very quickly with Labour now enjoying a six point lead. Although we should be wary of reading too much into mid-term opinion polls – all governments experience a sharp drop in support at some point – the speed of the collapse has set alarm bells ringing in government. So long as Johnson was perceived to be a political asset, his party was willing to turn a blind eye to his shortcomings. But Johnson’s public approval ratings are flagging. If press reports are to be believed, dissatisfaction with Johnson’s style of leadership is mounting in Westminster and challengers are jockeying for position in the event that a leadership contest is called in 2022. But don’t hold your breath.

For all the excitable commentary suggesting that the prime minister is in big trouble we should not allow ourselves to get too carried away. For one thing, experience suggests that prime ministers can hang on for quite some time after MPs begin to question their leadership. This was true for Theresa May and perhaps even more so for Margaret Thatcher, whose authority leached away over a prolonged period. This is perhaps even more relevant to today’s situation since she, like Johnson, was the personification of the government. My guess is that Johnson is unlikely is to be going anywhere anytime soon. A second problem is that the Tories do not have anyone with the star quality to fill Johnson’s shoes, despite the claims being made for the Chancellor Rishi Sunak. In addition, there is also a risk that the electorate may start to weary of a party that has developed an unfortunate habit of ditching its leaders – both of his predecessors either jumped or were pushed – particularly one with Johnson’s brand recognition.

Is Johnson a cause or a symptom?

In any case, there is an argument that Johnson is merely a symptom, rather than the cause, of the political malaise. Perhaps it is his party rather than just the prime minister which is increasingly out of tune with the electorate. As former Conservative minister Chris Patten recently suggested in a radio interview, “I’m not sure that this is a Conservative government. I think this is a sort of all over the place, rather chaotic English nationalist government.”

Having recently reread John Major’s autobiography I was struck by many of the parallels between the situation facing the current Conservative government and the travails of Major’s government between 1992 and 1997. Back in the 1990s, Major was undermined at almost every turn by a determined coterie of Eurosceptics which gave rise to a situation in which, to use the words of former Chancellor Norman Lamont, “we give the impression of being in office but not in power.” Although dissident Conservative MPs believed they were tapping into the well of public opinion, in reality their  obsession with anti-EU ideology was out of proportion to its importance to the general public and they paid the price at the ballot box in 1997.

The situation today is not quite the same. After all, in the last five years the Eurosceptics appear to have won their “war” with the EU but only at great cost to the institutional fabric. But they seem unable to accept the economic consequences of their actions and continue to lash out at the EU rather than coming to an accommodation as the public appears to want. The government often seems helpless in the face of Covid. Large numbers of MPs increasingly have a problem with lockdown measures to try and halt the spread of the disease, citing the primacy of personal freedom over the strictures of what one MP called the “public health socialist state.” Indeed, in a parliamentary vote earlier this week, 99 Conservative MPs voted against legislation making it a requirement to wear masks in indoor venues and it was only passed thanks to the support of the opposition. This flies in the face of evidence suggesting that the public is in favour of measures to combat the spread of the Omicron variant.

At a time when most people are trying to get on with their lives in the face of Covid, they do not have time to care about political machinations. But when they are regularly assailed with stories of failure to apply the rules consistently, they start to become restive. One of the principles of a modern democracy is that no one is above the law. Everyone has to abide by the same rules and the sheer volume of evidence to the contrary was one of the reasons for the North Shropshire result.

It may be that this is merely a short-term issue that will eventually blow over. Perhaps if the pandemic recedes in 2022 much of the anger felt today will dissipate. This makes it even more important that the government properly handles the latest wave of the pandemic. Tory MPs may object to a lockdown but public opinion suggests that there is not the same degree of opposition. As it is, large parts of the hospitality sector are already complaining that pre-Christmas trade has collapsed. The government may be forced to resurrect the furlough scheme in some form in order to provide a backstop for those whose incomes are being hit. Without some form of financial support, the Red Wall seats which the Conservatives won in 2019 may revert back to Labour. Either way, it is time for the government to start listening to those in whose name they govern, for the public do not like what they are currently seeing and hearing.