A little less conversation (a little more action please)

The investor community was distinctly unimpressed with the BoE’s decision to leave interest rates on hold yesterday with accusations that it had raised expectations ahead of the MPC meeting, only to dash them again. I have a lot of sympathy with those who were caught out, having spent years trying to discern the messages from central banks, and it is always immensely galling when policymakers drop hints only to act contrary to these messages. But it is equally important to understand that central bank messaging is always ever conditional and this subtlety is often overlooked during the media frenzy. However, this episode calls into question the usefulness of forward guidance as a policy tool and the BoE will clearly have to work on its communication strategy. There is also a question of whether a rate hike to counter a supply-side boost to inflation was ever the right approach in the first place.

Communication breakdown

Starting first with the communications, Governor Andrew Bailey told an online panel discussion organised by the G30 group on 17 October that "monetary policy cannot solve supply-side problems - but it will have to act and must do so if we see a risk, particularly to medium-term inflation and to medium-term inflation expectations … And that's why we at the Bank of England have signalled, and this is another such signal, that we will have to act." There were mutterings at the time that such a strong statement, made on a Sunday when markets were closed, should not have been made unless it signalled a shift in policy communications. A few days later the BoE’s new chief economist, Huw Pill, said in an FT interview that “I think November is live” and went on to add “the big picture is, I think, there are reasons that we don’t need the emergency settings of policy that we saw after the intensification of the pandemic” (a view I would endorse). But Pill also tried to take some heat out of the debate by noting “maybe there’s a bit too much excitement in the focus on rates right now.”

The latter point is the bit that was overlooked in the media commentary that followed. The BoE really ought to know better by now that markets simply do not do subtlety. Interest rate decisions are viewed as binary and markets are very poor at determining the distribution of risks unless they are spoon fed. There were also a couple of exogenous factors to take into consideration. Central banks are generally wary of moving ahead of the Fed, and with the FOMC having kept rates on hold the previous evening, the BoE may well have been sensitive to the prospect of acting unilaterally. Moreover, the MPC was not helped by the timing of the tax-raising Budget, released at the start of the MPC ‘purdah period’, which allowed the BoE no time to nudge expectations.

Better ways to communicate

A couple of years ago, former MPC member Gertjan Vlieghe gave a speech in which he suggested there were better ways of communicating monetary policy than the BoE does now. The speech was somewhat overlooked but in my view was a very thoughtful contribution to the policy debate that deserved more consideration. Vlieghe argued that there was a case for the MPC to communicate end-year forecasts for the policy rate. In his view this would take some heat out of the debate by reducing the focus on the very near term (though it may occasionally make life difficult at the final MPC meeting of the year). He reported that central banks in Sweden, Norway and New Zealand, which publish explicit forecasts, were satisfied that this method improved transparency. However, I have reservations that such an approach would work in the UK. Although Vlieghe noted that “it would be important to communicate the degree of uncertainty around this path”, my concern is that the commentariat would not necessarily understand the distinction between a conditional and an unconditional forecast. We are thus likely to end up in a situation where failure to deliver on the central case would be seen as a policy error.

If the BoE were to change its communication strategy, my own preference would be for it to adopt something akin to the Fed dot plot in which individual committee members give their own (anonymised) views on how they believe rates will develop. Here, too, there are many arguments against. For one thing, a dot plot does not identify how interest rate forecasts are linked to growth and inflation forecasts. Moreover the markets would likely focus on the diversity of views rather than the median outcome thus missing the point of the communication.

If we do not like this idea there is always the radical option of not trying to appease markets in the first place. Indeed, explicit monetary policy communication is a relatively recent phenomenon with the Fed switching to this strategy only in 1994. It is not as if the forward guidance policy espoused by former Governor Mark Carney has been a great success. If one of the objectives of monetary policy communication is to increase transparency, the outcome in the wake of yesterday’s decision, when sterling fell by 1.5% against the dollar and bond yields declined by 14 bps, is the sort of transparency that investors could probably live without.

Should interest rates be raised at all?

The issue of whether central banks should raise interest rates is one which I will undoubtedly look at in more detail in future. However, a couple of quick thoughts are in order. I have long taken the view espoused by Huw Pill that central banks have been too slow in taking back the emergency monetary easing put in place to cope with exceptional circumstances. In my view, one of the BoE’s errors in recent years has been the asymmetric nature of its reaction function. It has rightly cut interest rates during times of stress to provide support to the economy. But once the emergency is over, it has justified the decision to keep rates on hold by an absence of inflationary pressures rather than referring to a normalisation of economic conditions. This asymmetry has resulted in real interest rates remaining in negative territory for much of the past decade, with all the attendant distortions that have resulted.

Furthermore, with the BoE expecting inflation to get close to 5% next year, it is difficult to understand why a central bank which talks so much about hitting its inflation mandate continues to sit on its hands. Obviously the inflation spike is being driven by energy trends and supply bottlenecks in the wake of the pandemic, neither of which are amenable to monetary policy actions. But if the central bank does not want to raise rates at a time when inflation is heading towards its highest in 14 years, when will it ever?

Matters were undoubtedly complicated by the release of the budget last week, in which the main takeaway was the ongoing squeeze on household incomes. A rate hike would clearly have played badly in those circumstances. But what the episode demonstrates is that the BoE will have to think a lot more clearly about how it communicates its message, and perhaps equally importantly who it is communicating with? The decision to keep rates on hold sends a positive message to households that the BoE does not intend to make their lives harder but rattled markets which got carried away with the central bank’s message (obviously a rate hike would have reversed the two situations).

There are no easy answers to the conundrum of market communication, but clarity and consistency are the watchwords and arguably the BoE has fallen a bit short on both. Perhaps the problem can best be summed up in Alan Greenspan’s famous quote: “I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant.” It is easy to be critical of both the BoE for its mixed messages and investors for reading too much into its pronouncements. But if ever there was a sign that communications need to be rethought, this week's events provided it.