How is he doing?

A year ago I posed the question “if Johnson is the answer, what is the question?” Twelve months on, the question still stands. It has been a remarkably turbulent year, what with last year’s constitutional shenanigans; a general election; Brexit and the outbreak of Covid-19. On the basis of this BBC Fact Check Johnson's record is at best checkered. He failed in his primary objective to leave the EU on 31 October ("no ifs or buts"); his position on the Irish border has been less than honest and his much-vaunted social care plan has yet to see the light of day. Being generous, Johnson’s programme has been derailed by the worst recession in 300 years. But as I noted around the time of last year’s election it is still not clear what Johnson believes in, apart from delivering Brexit – and even then, he has cynically used this cause celebre as a platform for his ambition rather than being a hardline supporter of the policy.

There have over recent months been many claims in certain areas of the media that the Johnson government is engaged in shifting the political centre of gravity to the right and it is prepared to ride roughshod over the niceties of the British constitution in pursuit of its aims. Reasonable people can agree to disagree on this point but it certainly looks as though his government has taken the old Facebook maxim to heart: “Move fast and break things.” Johnson’s actions over the last 12 months are more authoritarian than anything we have experienced in British politics in living memory. Take for example, the attempt to suspend parliament last year in a bid to deliver Brexit – subsequently overturned by the courts – and the suspension of 21 MPs from the Conservative Party for defying the government. Whatever you might think of the action, and regular readers will know I was not a fan, it was at least designed to break the parliamentary deadlock over Brexit which had paralysed the government over the preceding three years.

But the recent decision to withdraw the whip from Julian Lewis for having the temerity to run against, and beat, the government’s preferred candidate to chair the Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC) was worrying on a number of levels and it highlights many of the weaknesses at the heart of the Johnson government. First, it appears from the outside that the government was prepared to appoint a lackey to oversee the release of the highly sensitive report into Russian influence on British public life. Filling parliamentary committees with “yes” men (and women) erodes the ability of parliament to hold the government to account on matters of national importance. Second, the government’s preferred candidate, Chris Grayling, does not have a strong track record of delivering. As The Economist noted last week, there is a dearth of talent in government because MPs are subject to “a Brexit purity test” which acts as a barrier to many competent people. Third, the fact that the government managed to lose a rigged election to the ISC calls into question its general competence to deliver on some of the bigger issues it will have to face (notably Brexit). Finally, the fact that the ISC report found that the government had not even bothered to investigate allegations of Russian involvement – whether true or not – points to remarkable complacency on matters of national importance.

In a week when the UK and EU warned that little progress has been made towards signing a trade deal by year-end and there is no prospect of a trade deal with the US, the risks to the UK economy are mounting. As it happens, I still believe that the UK and EU will sign some form of trade agreement before 31 December for to do otherwise would be a major policy failure that the government cannot afford. But in terms of international economic relations, the government appears to have a dwindling circle of friends following its decision to cut Huawei out of the 5G network and this week’s spat with Russia. When the government claimed that Brexit would allow the UK to forge its own path, nobody imagined it would be quite this alone on the world stage.

During his tenure as London Mayor Johnson was noted for being a hands-off leader, preferring to delegate the hard thinking to a group of trusted advisers. At the heart of Johnson’s administration is his chief adviser Dominic Cummings who is a man in a hurry to get things done. Cummings appears indispensable to the Johnson project – after all, his clear breach of the Covid-19 lockdown guidelines would in most circumstances have seen him removed from office. For anyone interested in understanding Cummings, his views and modus operandi, I heartily recommend this BBC documentary (Youtube link here). I am uncomfortable with the media attention Cummings generates, and the picture that is painted of a guy who controls the heart of government (a view I hope is untrue). My impression is that Cummings is an iconoclast who wants to make radical changes to the way in which Britain is governed. Whilst he is clearly persuasive and articulate, I do not get the sense that he has thought through the longer-term implications of his ideas. In short, he is a campaigner rather than a man who follows through. 

I can see why this appeals to Johnson, who is a fantastic campaigner in his own right and always looking for the next idea to sell. But this is not how the hard work of governance is conducted. If politics is the art of the possible, a sensible strategy is to adopt a small number of ambitious but achievable goals rather than trying to do too many things at once. Arguably it is this rush to do too much that has forced the government to crack down on those who get in the way of it achieving its goals. However it creates the impression of unstable government in which a small, unchanging, group of people are driving the agenda.

Johnson won a handsome majority at the December election on the promise of getting Brexit done and creating opportunities for those voters outside the London bubble who perceive they have been left behind. The UK may have left the EU but Brexit is far from done, and the government has its work cut out to deliver on its promises now that Covid-19 has turned the economic landscape upside down. Johnson has had a difficult year, and not all the problems are of his own making. But too many are, and if he fancies another term as Prime Minister, he will have to change his approach to government.