The moment of untruth

As I put this post together we are a mere hours away from the UK's third general election in just over 4 years. By the time many of you read it, polling may be over. Almost all voters agree that this is an election too far with an unedifying set of choices on offer. On the one hand, Boris Johnson is merely seeking office for its own sake with no indication that he has a plan for the next five years. As I have noted on many occasions, the notion of “getting Brexit done” by 31 January is fanciful. The UK may be able to leave the EU but there is a long hard road ahead. On the other hand, Jeremy Corbyn represents a throwback to a form of socialism that was not even popular when it was fashionable. He has a clear agenda but it is not one that the majority of voters share and I maintain my long-standing view that Labour will fall short of their 2017 performance.

Trust has been badly eroded in recent years by the actions of politicians, with that process having gained momentum in the five months since Johnson took occupancy of Downing Street. Johnson has attempted to ride roughshod over parliament; has thrown his political allies under a bus and expelled 21 MPs from his own side in order to deliver a Brexit that in his heart of hearts, he surely does not believe in. The reputation of the media has also come in for serious scrutiny, with a large group of voters having lost trust in the impartiality of the BBC which is viewed as having given the Conservatives an easier ride. Former BBC insiders have queued up to suggest that the Corporation’s judgement on a host of news items has been somewhat lacking. I am not going to join the group of BBC bashers but the very fact that so many now question its role suggests that its hard won reputation will not easily recover.

And then there is the role of the judiciary, which was forced to step in when the government attempted to circumvent the parliamentary process. The Conservative manifesto promises to set up a Constitution, Democracy & Rights Commission in order to “look at the broader aspects of our constitution,” giving rise to fears that a Tory government may extract some form of revenge following its defeat at the hands of the Supreme Court.

Predicting the outcome of the election is a mug’s game when we are so close to the opening of the polls. But the updated results from YouGov’s MRP model, published yesterday, suggested that the Conservatives will win a majority of 28 seats – in line with my prediction from last week – and which is down from 68 in the results released two weeks ago. If we believe there is a 65-70% chance of a Tory majority and a 5% chance of an outright Labour win, this implies a probability of 25-30% of a hung parliament – in other words, not negligible but not a highly likely event. A majority in excess of 20 should easily allow a Conservative government to ratify the Withdrawal Agreement Bill (WAB) by January and permit it to pursue whatever form of trading arrangements it wants with the EU. Since the Tories have made it clear that they will not extend the transitional arrangements beyond the end of next year, there may be nothing to stop a government with a decent majority from triggering a hard Brexit at end-2020 – either by accident or design.

But given that there is a considerable margin of error attached to any election forecast, we cannot rule out the prospect of a Johnson government with a majority of less than 20. This would mean that Johnson would be as beholden to the lunatic fringe in his parliamentary party as Theresa May. He can still get the WAB over the line by January but his room for manoeuvre thereafter is likely to be limited as he will not be able to afford many Tory rebels on key pieces of legislation. Matters turn more complicated if the Tories remain the largest party but fall short of a majority. After all, the DUP will not help Johnson out after his betrayal over the Irish border question, and the election designed to bring the country back together will have proved to be another gamble that failed. There are other possible outcomes which do not involve the Conservatives in government at all, but we will look at those in the event they become a realistic prospect.

However, the fact remains that whatever the outcome, the country will remain divided on so many issues. Given the philosophical gap between the two main parties, it is hard to see much cross-party cooperation in parliament which sounds like a recipe for more of the fractious deadlock that has been the soundtrack to the last two years. As far as Brexit goes, Leavers may well have lost the war, largely thanks to the incompetence of Leave-supporting politicians, but they will not be assuaged. And those in favour of Brexit may yet experience buyer’s remorse if it does not go as planned. With the Brexit economic dividend remaining as elusive as the unicorn, I predict that GDP growth will remain sluggish – which in fairness will also be due to the ongoing global slowdown. But a lack of investment will mean that the capital stock slowly becomes less productive with the result that productivity growth – the key driver of living standards – will likely remain stuck in low gear.

Neither Labour nor the Tories will be able to deliver on their promises. Labour simply will not be able to boost spending as quickly as they plan: If they can get halfway to their targets they will be doing well. Meanwhile, the Conservatives will almost certainly expand fiscal policy by more than their manifesto currently suggests. Spending on the NHS will almost certainly have to rise because otherwise it is likely to be a vote loser for them by the time of the next election (on the assumption that Labour chooses an ABC leader – Anyone But Corbyn – to oppose Johnson). But rather than increase spending there have been suggestions that the Conservatives will cut taxes – something that was not in their manifesto – with Johnson indicating in a BBC interview that “in our first budget we propose to do more to cut taxes.” Whatever happens, fiscal deficits seem set to increase.

In just over 24 hours it will all be over. Whilst I don’t buy the Johnson slogan of “get Brexit done” I am sure I speak for millions when I say “get this election done.”