Following Theresa May’s abortive efforts to persuade the EU
to change its mind with regard to offering some form of Brexit concessions, and
as the Italian government’s spat with the European Commission continues, it
seems like an opportune moment to reflect on how to negotiate with the EU. Based on a recent article by the Neue Zürcher Zeitung, which looked at the lessons Switzerland could take away from its EU negotiations, I set out a framework for the likes of Poland and Hungary, who might soon
find themselves on the wrong end of the Commission’s wrath, based on the past experiences of Greece, Italy and the UK.
1) Know what you are
trying to achieve
The British clearly failed on this score. The referendum
result merely expressed a wish to leave the EU, not how it should be
implemented. Nine months after the referendum, the UK invoked the two year
Article 50 procedure without any clear objective in mind other than to leave
the EU. Without having done any preparatory work beforehand the British started
their negotiations from a position of weakness and things never got any better.
As a consequence, the British have spent more time arguing amongst themselves
than engaging constructively with the EU. Last week, when Theresa May went back
to Brussels to plead for more concessions in order to raise the chances of the
Withdrawal Agreement passing through parliament, she was repeatedly asked to
specify what she wanted. And she could not do so.
2) Everyone has their
own domestic policies
Many of those members who get into difficulties with the EU
often find that they ignore the domestic sensibilities of other members. When
faced with the Troika’s proposals to allocate more funds to Greece in the
summer of 2015, the Greek government called a referendum in which the Troika’s
terms were rejected by a majority of 61% to 39%. But EU member governments were
having none of it and offered liquidity on the same terms, which the Greek
government was subsequently humiliatingly forced to accept. The tactic employed
in parts of the Greek press of portraying Angela Merkel in terms of a previous,
less enlightened, German Chancellor clearly did not play well in Germany and
hardened the resolve of the EU. The UK finds itself with similar difficulties:
It cannot continue to ask for exemptions from the EU rules that everyone else
has to abide by. At some point, someone is going to cry foul.
3) Don’t paint your
red lines too deeply
One reason why Theresa May finds herself in her current
position is that she set red lines on issues such as immigration, ECJ involvement
and leaving the customs union without accounting for the consequences of her
actions. As a result when faced with the draft Withdrawal Agreement, both
Leavers and Remainers can rightly argue that she has not reached an agreement
that anyone can sign up to because the PM has been forced to compromise so
much. The Italians find themselves in a similar position today. Having refused
to countenance any cuts to outlays, the European Commission instituted
excessive deficit proceedings in an action that was totally avoidable. If
nothing else, the EU is built on compromises and it is normally possible to
find some form of accommodation – so long as you don’t paint yourself in a
corner to start with.
4) Don’t mess with
the family
It was (rightly) argued long before the Brexit referendum
that the EU had no interest in giving a generous deal to the UK. Its primary
interest was to defend the interests of its members and ensure that no country
could leave on favourable terms in case others decided that they also wanted to
depart. The EU27 have thus closed ranks and spoken with one voice regarding the
terms on which the UK could leave. Like any family, the EU is quite capable of
quarrels – even feuds – but when the chips are down it usually pulls together.
Ironically, Britain has never really felt like one of the family. It was twice
refused membership in the 1960s thanks to President de Gaulle’s view that the
UK was a Trojan horse for US interests and would undermine the vision that many
members shared for the EU. De Gaulle may not have been wholly right but he was
not totally wrong either and sometimes the UK has felt more like a lodger than
a full family member.
5) Might is right
It is unfortunately one of the rules of life that larger and
more powerful nations dictate terms to the smaller ones. This is not new: Larger tribes have been
pushing the smaller ones around since ancient times, but at least the EU is
underpinned by a series of rules that afford some rights to the smaller
members. However, the Greeks learned to their cost in 2015 that it was
impossible for a nation of 11 million people to go against an economic
superpower of 314 million, particularly when their case is relatively weak.
Greece reckoned that ultimately the EU would cave in and offer more favourable
terms but the Germans, particularly Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, were
adamant that the only choice Greece faced was take the terms or leave. They
took the terms! The Irish can tell a similar story about how they were forced
to accept the terms of the EU bailout, which many claim even now was primarily
designed to support the EU banking system rather than Ireland. So when the UK
goes into the conference chamber as one government facing 27 others, with
Germany and France arraigned on the other side of the table, you don’t have a
strong negotiating position.
The UK, like Greece before it, has failed to understand the
basis of its negotiating position vis-à-vis the EU which goes a long way
towards explaining its current predicament. However, many of these pitfalls
were avoidable and it speaks volumes that the British tried to placate domestic
opinion rather than that of its EU negotiating partners. I would like to think
that Polish and Hungarian officials have taken these lessons on board as they
brace for heightened tensions with Brussels. But somehow I have my doubts.
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