Blink and think

In Jeremy Corbyn’s words this afternoon, this really is beginning to feel like Groundhog Day. The UK and EU27 continue to seek a resolution to the Irish border problem but are unable to find one because the British government is hemmed in by the contradictory positions of the hardline Brexiteers; remain-supporting MPs and the DUP. It is an unholy mess, and hopes that a border agreement would be thrashed out in time for this week’s Brussels summit appear to be receding. Having initially expected that both sides would agree the final outline of the Irish border agreement in October, the best that can be hoped for is that the EU will this week give a green light to hold a summit in November. European Council President Tusk has already said that if a plausible Irish border strategy cannot be agreed this week, the chances of scheduling a November summit are remote.

Increasingly, I do wonder how close to the fire politicians’ feet have to be held before they realise that playing with matches is dangerous. Theresa May’s statement to the House of Commons this afternoon was billed as an update of the state of play, but was in reality yet another blizzard of obfuscation. The prime minister’s statement reiterated that any backstop arrangement with the EU regarding the Irish border can only be temporary. But to the extent that a backstop represents the default position to which both sides revert in the event that the preferred solutions do not materialise, it can only work if it is a permanent arrangement. Nor does she concede in public that the EU simply will not accept a temporary solution. I am reminded of the line from the film The Battle of Britain, delivered by Sir Ralph Richardson who played the British Ambassador to Switzerland: “We're on our own. We've been playing for time. And it's running out!”

Not only did the PM argue for a temporary arrangement, contrary to the EU’s wishes, but she refused to be drawn on how temporary it would prove to be. A year? Two years? Longer? Quite clearly, this was Theresa May trying to square the demands of the DUP, who want to prevent Northern Ireland from being carved out from the UK, against the Brexiteers who want to break free from the EU customs union. And it is an impossible circle to square.

I had hoped that rationality would start to kick in by now, but as I noted a couple of weeks ago (here) it is entirely possible that all sides have adopted such entrenched positions that they are unable to back down and that irrational outcomes are increasingly baked in. But it is not about the UK versus the EU: The real problems lie closer to home, with the domestic positions of the respective UK parties showing no signs of moving. Perhaps even more worrying is that ideological rather than rational politics holds sway across many countries. The very fact that the sky has not (yet) fallen in suggests that those contemplating radical solutions might be tempted to pursue them in the belief that the downsides are limited. One day someone is going to make a big miscalculation, and if we continue down our present path it might just be Brexit that demonstrates where the limits of populism lie.

But there is an additional issue that politicians have to bear in mind. Although the government repeatedly tells us that it is intent on delivering the will of the people in accordance with the mandate given by the referendum, the winds may have shifted against them. Polling evidence suggests that those believing the UK made the wrong decision to leave the EU now hold a lead of at least five percentage points over those who believe it was the right decision (chart). If the government does get it wrong by triggering a hard Brexit, with all the attendant adverse economic consequences, the electorate will hold them to account. Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, memorably said yesterday in the context of Brexit that “This is a battle of who blinks first, and we’ve cut off our eyelids.” I rather suspect that an unforgiving electorate will want to cut off more than politicians’ eyelids.