It then starts to get a little murky thereafter. CN observed that said account posted only between 8am to 8pm Moscow time "almost like it's his job or something". Breaking down the subject matter of the account reveals that this account posted a lot about Ukraine in 2014, then in 2016 moved on to the issues of Brexit and Trump (see chart). Some of the material on the Brexit topic was very inflammatory, particularly with regard to immigration. When it came to the US election, CN pointed out that the language was very similar to that used by adherents of the Alt-right, despite the fact the poster was supposed to be British. CN concludes that this account was "one of the more interesting troll accounts I've seen (and almost certainly human operated and not a bot)". Furthermore, the variety of topics was "aligned with the interests of the Kremlin at the time."
Now we may be maligning David Jones of Southampton unfairly
and perhaps he really feels very strongly about the issues at stake. But as one
commentator pointed out, if it were a UK based Tweeter their times would vary
with the switch to daylight saving in the UK, which would change the time
vis-a-vis Russia which has no DST. But they do not, hence accentuating CN's
suspicions. This clearly highlights the ease with which it is possible to
influence issues of the day by disseminating a particular view and creating a
fake network of followers to provide "likes" and recommendations.
This is not to say that the likes of Russia are unduly influencing the democratic process in western economies – at least no more so than usual. Foreign powers have always used propaganda to influence beliefs in other countries. There is evidence to suggest its use as far back as the sixth century BC and it reached new heights during the Second World War, and the Cold War that followed. Even today, the TV channel RT and the BBC World Service provide a view of the world as seen from Moscow and London respectively. Fake news is not new either: One of the more historically notable events was the publication by the Daily Mail of the infamous Zinoviev Letter in 1924 which purported to be a directive from the head of the international Communist movement, based in Moscow, to the British Communist Party encouraging it to engage in seditious activities. What appeared to be a direct attempt to influence British domestic policy turned out to be a forgery, but it cast a shadow over the Labour Party for decades thereafter, which (unfairly) blamed its heavy election defeat on the letter.
However, the rise of social media has changed the way in which propaganda can be disseminated. For one thing, it is easy to maintain online anonymity which means we can never be 100% sure of the source of the material. Moreover, social media operates on a decentralised basis so that it is straightforward to set up a series of apparently independent channels all feeding the same message. In this way, the message can be drip-fed rather than blasted out.
The impact of fake news on voting patterns is believed to be very small. In one study (Spenkuch and Toniatti 2016[1]) the authors suggest that exposing voters to one additional television campaign ad changes vote shares by approximately 0.02 percentage points. If exposure to one TV ad is as persuasive as one fake news article, each fake tweet influences voting patterns by mere hundredths of a percent. Preaching to the converted will not win more votes, so it does not matter how many times those convinced of a particular view are exposed to fake news because they only have one vote. But the cumulative effect of many thousands of such fake messages will start to mount up if they then influence other voters who otherwise might not be susceptible to such tactics. According to one source (Gottfried and Shearer 2016[2]), 62 percent of US adults get their news from social media and 18 percent do so often, with Facebook the most popular medium. Not everyone will believe the fake news of course, but the dissemination of fake news may have more of an effect than we often credit.
This appears to be a serious problem but I will leave it for others to debate the impact on voting patterns. As an economist, my concern is how such tactics could change the way politicians react to the groundswell of apparent public opinion. If social media is abuzz with reports of how health spending, for example, is scandalously low, do governments react by changing their priorities in order to win votes at the next election? And how would they do so: Do they change their defence budget? Given the low costs associated with fake news dissemination, it is easy to understand why foreign powers with a different world view might try to influence the policies of other governments. But the same applies to domestic interest groups which want to prioritize spending on one area over another. Companies might also apply the same tactics to make the case for a change in the law. If anything this highlights the extent to which all members with a vested interest in our society have a duty to do a little bit of due diligence rather than simply accepting the newsfeeds put before us.
Otherwise, as the often prescient and always quotable HL Mencken put it, "As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."
This is not to say that the likes of Russia are unduly influencing the democratic process in western economies – at least no more so than usual. Foreign powers have always used propaganda to influence beliefs in other countries. There is evidence to suggest its use as far back as the sixth century BC and it reached new heights during the Second World War, and the Cold War that followed. Even today, the TV channel RT and the BBC World Service provide a view of the world as seen from Moscow and London respectively. Fake news is not new either: One of the more historically notable events was the publication by the Daily Mail of the infamous Zinoviev Letter in 1924 which purported to be a directive from the head of the international Communist movement, based in Moscow, to the British Communist Party encouraging it to engage in seditious activities. What appeared to be a direct attempt to influence British domestic policy turned out to be a forgery, but it cast a shadow over the Labour Party for decades thereafter, which (unfairly) blamed its heavy election defeat on the letter.
However, the rise of social media has changed the way in which propaganda can be disseminated. For one thing, it is easy to maintain online anonymity which means we can never be 100% sure of the source of the material. Moreover, social media operates on a decentralised basis so that it is straightforward to set up a series of apparently independent channels all feeding the same message. In this way, the message can be drip-fed rather than blasted out.
The impact of fake news on voting patterns is believed to be very small. In one study (Spenkuch and Toniatti 2016[1]) the authors suggest that exposing voters to one additional television campaign ad changes vote shares by approximately 0.02 percentage points. If exposure to one TV ad is as persuasive as one fake news article, each fake tweet influences voting patterns by mere hundredths of a percent. Preaching to the converted will not win more votes, so it does not matter how many times those convinced of a particular view are exposed to fake news because they only have one vote. But the cumulative effect of many thousands of such fake messages will start to mount up if they then influence other voters who otherwise might not be susceptible to such tactics. According to one source (Gottfried and Shearer 2016[2]), 62 percent of US adults get their news from social media and 18 percent do so often, with Facebook the most popular medium. Not everyone will believe the fake news of course, but the dissemination of fake news may have more of an effect than we often credit.
This appears to be a serious problem but I will leave it for others to debate the impact on voting patterns. As an economist, my concern is how such tactics could change the way politicians react to the groundswell of apparent public opinion. If social media is abuzz with reports of how health spending, for example, is scandalously low, do governments react by changing their priorities in order to win votes at the next election? And how would they do so: Do they change their defence budget? Given the low costs associated with fake news dissemination, it is easy to understand why foreign powers with a different world view might try to influence the policies of other governments. But the same applies to domestic interest groups which want to prioritize spending on one area over another. Companies might also apply the same tactics to make the case for a change in the law. If anything this highlights the extent to which all members with a vested interest in our society have a duty to do a little bit of due diligence rather than simply accepting the newsfeeds put before us.
Otherwise, as the often prescient and always quotable HL Mencken put it, "As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron."
[1] Spenkuch, Jörg L., and David Toniatti. 2016 “Political Advertising and Election Outcomes.” CESifo Working Paper Series 5780
[2] Gottfried, Jeffrey, and Elisa Shearer. 2016. “News Use across Social Media Platforms 2016.” Pew Research Center, May 26. http://www.journalism.org/2016/05/26/news-use-across-social-media-platforms-2016
[2] Gottfried, Jeffrey, and Elisa Shearer. 2016. “News Use across Social Media Platforms 2016.” Pew Research Center, May 26. http://www.journalism.org/2016/05/26/news-use-across-social-media-platforms-2016
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