The election by numbers

After six weeks of campaigning the majority of British voters just want to put this election behind them, such has been the cynical nature of a plebiscite designed purely to give Boris Johnson a platform to continue doing whatever it is he wants to achieve as prime minister. Other than "getting Brexit done" most people do not know what he really wants. I suspect neither does he.

It has also been an election in which the issue of fake news has played a more witting role than in the past. We used to think that spin doctors had taken politics to new lows as they put the best gloss on their own policies whilst trashing the plans of the opposition. But today it is dominated by fake news merchants whose job is to repeat simple phrases ad infinitum, irrespective of whether they are true. In a bid to separate fact from fiction, my intention in this post is to boil down the election campaign into a series of key numbers which encapsulate the spin and counter spin of this unedifying campaign.

1. 83 billion. This is the amount of extra current spending (in pounds) that the Labour Party plans to undertake by fiscal year 2023-24. As noted in this post this is an attempt to finance Labour’s redistribution policy in which the biggest spending element is the £13.6bn cost of abolishing student tuition fees. This is offset by a huge rise in taxation, with more than half of the incidence falling on corporates, financial institutions and taxes on capital. Verdict: At least Labour are honest about their desire to raise tax and spending, but it does not appear to be going down well with the voters.
2. 58 billion. This is the amount of unfunded spending that Labour plans in order to recompense women who lost out on pension income as their retirement age was raised to match that of men. The IFS dismisses the policy thus: “The decision was taken at least 15 years before the increase in pension age and most in the group are relatively well off. To believe the whole group should receive compensation is a recipe for complete stasis in policy. How can you ever defend any policy which ever makes anyone worse off if you think this change in pension age, implemented with 15 years notice, designed to equalise treatment between men and women, and in the face of dramatic increases in life expectancy, is in some sense unethical?” Verdict: I’m with the IFS.
3. 50,000. The number of new nurses positions pledged by the Conservative government in its manifesto. But this figure includes an estimated 18,500 nurses who would otherwise quit the profession, implying that the number of new positions is only 31,500. Verdict: A shameless lie.
4. 20,000. The number of new police officers that a Conservative government intends to employ in the next parliament. It turns out to be a bone fide promise but it is only sufficient to restore the number of police officers back to where they were when the Conservatives assumed office in 2010. Verdict: A half truth.
5. 320. The number of seats that a government needs to win a parliamentary majority. The latest forecast from Electoral Calculus suggests that the Conservatives will win 348 seats (31 more than in 2017), giving a majority of 46. Verdict: The Conservatives look set for a convincing win although I would not want to put money on it, especially since the Tories are odds-on with the bookmakers’ at around 1-25 (i.e. you need to bet £25 in order to win £1).
6.  209. The lowest number of seats won by the Labour Party in the post-1945 era. This occurred in 1983 when the Labour Party fought on an avowedly left-wing agenda against a charismatic Conservative politician. Verdict: Labour likely to do better than in 1983 but the Electoral Calculus prediction of 225 would be the second lowest in the modern era. 
7. 49. The number of days between 13 December (the day after the election) and 31 January. This is the timeframe in which Boris Johnson believes he can “get Brexit done.” Verdict: Given a sufficiently large majority, the Conservatives could indeed get the Withdrawal Agreement Bill ratified by parliament, in which case the UK can leave the EU on 31 January. But Brexit will be far from done – the next stage is only just beginning.
8. 40. The number of new hospitals the Conservatives say they will build. In fact, the government has committed the money to upgrade just six hospitals by 2025. Up to 38 other hospitals have received money to plan for building work between 2025 and 2030, but not to actually begin any work. Verdict: Another distortion of economic reality by Boris Johnson's government.
9.  Zero. The probability that Nigel Farage will emerge as prime minister and to the nearest digit, the number of MPs that the Brexit Party is likely to send to Westminster. Verdict: Given Farage’s refusal to stand for parliament, having lost seven times previously, and given the Brexit Party’s lack of representation in Westminster, there is no justification for the British media to continue to give Farage a platform. If anything good comes out of the election, it will (hopefully) be the end of Farage as a semi-credible political force. 

Boiling down an election merely to numbers may be a crude way to distil the complexities of all parties' positions but this has been an exceptionally crude campaign. This is an election nobody wants at a time when people really have other things to look forward to. What a way to spend December.