Brexit demographics revisited

More than three years after the Brexit referendum, many of those who promoted the idea are more adamant than ever that the UK should leave the EU. We only need to listen to the candidates for the Conservative Party leadership attempting to outdo themselves in terms of their commitment to the Brexit cause to realise that something unpleasant has taken root in the public debate over the past three years. One of the contenders, Jeremy Hunt who in 2016 supported the Remain campaign, responded in a TV interview to the question whether he was prepared to let businesses go to the wall in the event of a no-deal Brexit that he “would do so but I would do it with a heavy heart … if in order to do what the people tell us to do, we have to leave without a deal, I would do that.“ In all my time watching UK politics, I do not think I have ever heard a politician say something as stupid – and there is a lot of competition.

Brexit has now become an article of faith in which politicians tell us that the will of the people has to be respected. These are the same politicians who respect the will of the people so much that they have twice changed an elected prime minister without consulting the wider electorate. Or, to put it another way, the next prime minister will be a leader without a general mandate, of a government without a majority, promising an outcome that is not deliverable to an unrepresentative slice of the electorate and foisting it on a public that arguably no longer wants it. Let there be no doubt that what is being offered today – a hard Brexit – is not what people voted for in 2016. Of course, a no-deal Brexit may not result in the worst case scenarios that many of us have highlighted. But the simple truth is we do not know what will happen, in which case politicians have a duty not to take unnecessary risks with the livelihoods of the electorate which they represent.

As a reminder, the 2017 Conservative manifesto promised “a strong economy that works for everyone.” It also promised “We will seek to replicate all existing EU free trade agreements and support the ratification of trade agreements entered into during our EU membership … We will introduce a Trade Bill in the next parliament.” So far it has failed to deliver on the first two of these and the Trade Bill has still not been ratified. Brexit is clearly not proceeding as planned. That being the case, what is stopping the government from putting the terms of the EU exit to the electorate for ratification?

What appears to be stopping them is that the Conservatives have nailed their colours to the Brexit mast, and it is far from certain that they will be able to get a second Brexit referendum across the line. A quick look at the demographics highlights the extent of the problem. Based on data through 14 June 2019, we know that 1.34 million people aged 65+ have passed away since the referendum in June 2016. By the same token, roughly 1.16 million young people who were not old enough to vote three years ago are now eligible to do so. Of course, not all those aged 65+ who are now deceased will have supported Brexit and not all those now old enough to cast a vote will necessarily support Remain.

I have thus made some assumptions based on varying degrees of Brexit support for deceased voters aged 65+, ranging from 50% to 75%. Similarly, new voters are assumed to support Brexit over the range 25% to 75%. In simple terms, the higher the degree of support for Brexit amongst deceased voters and the lower the degree of support from younger voters, the more the margin in favour of Leave narrows. This is illustrated in chart 1 (above). In the case where deceased voters are assumed to have voted 75% in favour of Brexit (right-hand column) whereas only 25% of new voters support it (top row) the margin in favour of leaving the EU narrows to 15k. Conversely if deceased voters only voted 50% in favour Brexit (left-hand column) and younger voters are 75% in favour (bottom row), the margin comes in at 1.85 million. Recall that the margin in favour of Remain in 2016 was 1.27 million.

On the basis of the figures presented here, there are no circumstances in which the demographics alone will flip the referendum result. Matters look slightly different if we account for a swing in voters’ preferences on top of the demographics. A swing of 2% in favour of Remain opens up the prospect that the result could be overturned (chart 2). A 4% swing would certainly make a Leave vote a realistic prospect (chart 3). Evidence to suggest there has been a swing in public opinion comes from the poll conducted by YouGov since summer 2016 asking whether people think the vote to leave in 2016 was right or wrong. Those who believe it was the wrong decision now hold a seven point lead over those who believe it was the right decision, whereas in summer 2016 they lagged by three percentage points.

With the Conservative Party comprised of mature voters with a clear bias towards Brexit, no candidate worth their salt is going to promise a second referendum. But the very narrowness of the victory margin in 2016 meant that it was always going to be vulnerable to small changes in demographics and voter preferences. Whilst a second referendum which produces a narrow vote for Remain will not resolve the issue either, it is clear that those politicians who argue that the electorate clearly supports Brexit (“do or die” to quote Boris Johnson) are deluding themselves and large parts of the electorate. The new prime minister has a big job on their hands to restore political unity – the evidence suggests that delivering a no-deal Brexit will not be the way to do that.