Borderline insanity

As we reach the end of another month in which the UK government has failed to make any real Brexit progress, the European Commission has taken the initiative by producing a 119 page draft document detailing the legal text that will form the basis of the UK’s departure from the EU. One of the key protocols indicated that in the absence of any other solution, the EU will establish a common regulatory area in which “the territory of Northern Ireland, excluding the territorial waters of the United Kingdom (the "territory of Northern Ireland"), shall be considered to be part of the customs territory of the Union.”

This puts the UK government in an awkward position. Last summer it produced a Position Paper in which it committed to (i) upholding the Good Friday Agreement; (ii) maintaining the Common Travel Area and (iii) avoiding a hard border for the movement of goods. It did not give any detail on how these objectives could be achieved but instead talked vaguely of “technical solutions” without outlining what they are nor how they would work. Following the December agreement between the UK and EU, the two sides essentially kicked the can down the road, agreeing that progress had been made on the Irish border question without having done anything of the sort (as I noted at the time).

The extent to which influential Leave supporters really do not understand what is at stake was highlighted by Boris Johnson’s  crass remark earlier this week that the Irish border was no more of a problem than boundaries between different boroughs of London. Apart, that is, from the fact that we are talking about a border between two sovereign states with different legal systems – so pretty much identical, then (and this man is the Foreign Secretary for pity’s sake).

Obviously, the EC’s action met with a hostile reaction from both Prime Minister May and Unionist politicians in Northern Ireland who see this as an attempt to drive a wedge between the UK and the province. May told the House of Commons that “No UK prime minister could ever agree to it and I will be making that absolutely clear.” At that point – and you know what is coming next – the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier will politely ask what is the UK’s alternative plan. Unless the UK can magically find a way to introduce the technology to maintain an open border, it seems to me that the only alternatives are either to reject the EU proposal, raising the likelihood of a hard Brexit, or rethink the plan to leave the customs union which would eliminate the Irish problem but annoy those pushing for a hard Brexit.

Jeremy Corbyn has already committed the Labour Party to supporting EU customs union membership following his speech on Monday. And there are plenty of Conservative MPs who support this position, which gives rise to the possibility that a cross-party grouping could yet force the prime minister to abandon her ruinously idiotic policy of leaving the customs union. From an economic perspective, departure makes no sense. Leavers will, of course, claim that it will give the UK the freedom to sign up to trade deals with rapidly growing countries outside the EU. But as I – and many others – have repeatedly pointed out, the gains from such deals are unlikely to make up for losses incurred by leaving the single market and customs union.

However, the Leavers have now convinced themselves that in June 2016 voters opted for leaving the customs union, even though that was never once discussed (let alone appear on the ballot paper). As a result we have head bangers such as Liam Fox claiming that backtracking on this commitment would be a “betrayal” of voters’ wishes in 2016. But it is clear that opposition to this damaging form of Brexit is mounting. Martin Donnelly, a former senior civil servant who served under Fox, recently described current government policy as like “swapping a three-course meal for a packet of crisps.” If leaving the EU represents the crisps diet, then maintaining customs union membership might be seen as swapping our banquet for a miserable course of cheese and biscuits – still sub-optimal but better than the processed potato-based option.

The EC knows, of course, that what it has proposed regarding the Northern Irish customs union is unacceptable to the British government. But at the very least, this intervention might force the UK to commit to what it wants from Brexit rather than simply talking in vague generalities. It could even persuade Theresa May to stand up to the ultras in her party who have commandeered Brexit to further their own ideological ends, rather than looking after the interests of the UK as they were elected to do. That may be a forlorn hope but with time running short and the prime minister increasingly reminiscent of Captain Queeg of The Caine Mutiny fame, someone has to take control. And if the EU forces the UK to take action to end the vacillation, so much the better. After all, despite their tribulations, Greek voters appear to prefer remaining in the EU than hand the keys over to domestic politicians. I increasingly know how they feel.